"Global Change and the Alaska Integrated Model of Economics and Ecosystems"
Presenter: Michael Dalton, REFM, AFSC, NOAA
When: Tuesday, May 1, 2007, 11:00am
Where: Traynor Seminar Rm (2076), Bldg. 4, AFSC, Sand Point Campus, Seattle, Washington
- This seminar will be transmitted live to the Auke Bay Laboratory (main conference room), and to the Newport Laboratory (BFB - Room 201).
- When arriving from off the WRC campus, leave extra time to check in with security at the gate and at the entrance to building 4.
Abstract:
Globalization and climate change will create new challenges for Alaska’s fisheries in the coming decades. The AFSC/Economic and Social Sciences Research Program (ESSRP) is developing an integrated model with links to climate, demography, energy use, and soon, North Pacific ecosystem dynamics. This seminar will introduce the model, which is based on modern macroeconomic theory. The key element of the modern approach is that macroeconomic outcomes are derived explicitly from microeconomic behavior.
Two types of uncertainty from climate change are considered. First, Alaska fishermen’s microeconomic behavior under uncertainty is analyzed in response to short-term (e.g., seasonal, inter-annual) variability from climate, prices, and beliefs about the status of fish stocks. The second case takes a long-run global view and uses scenarios from the climate change literature, with an energy-economic growth model from the integrated assessment literature, to examine how future economic development and demographic change will lead to income growth that could increase global demand for seafood (thus, raising economic value in Alaska), but will also cause greater energy use and carbon dioxide emissions, potentially affecting future climate.
Presenter's Bio:
Mike Dalton joined the AFSC/ESSRP as an Industry Economist in June 2006. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota in September 1995, and worked as a Postdoctoral Research Associate at Stanford University from 1995-1998. He joined the faculty of California State University-Monterey Bay in 1998, and was promoted to Associate Professor of Ecological Economics during spring 2006. Mike served on the Pacific Fishery Management Council’s Scientific and Statistical Committee from 2000-2006. He has published in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Science, Marine Resource Economics, Energy Economics, Ecological Economics, and Climatic Change.
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