Spring 2001 Change Package for Meso Eta CAFTI briefing
Spring 2001 Change Package
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3DVAR Status
3DVAR Changes
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Complete Statistical Results for ALL Tests of new 3DVAR
Fit to RAOBs 13 Aug - 12 Sep 2000 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: new3DVAR)
Improvement in Warm Season Daily Precip scores, 13 Aug – 14 Sep 2000 (22km)
Fit to RAOBs 2 Feb - 01 Mar 2001 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: new3DVAR)
Improvement in Cold Season Daily Precip scores, 2 Feb – 1 Mar 2001 (22km)
Example : 00Z 15 February 2001 cycle
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Assimilation of Observed Precipitation
Precipitation Assimilation Method
Assimilation of observed precipitation http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/papers/lin/pcpasm/paper.html
Major Findings
EDAS Total Precipitation 12Z 30 Jun - 12Z 15 Jul 1998
Precip for 30 Jun-15 Jul 1998 & Moisture Availability (%) on 15 July 1998
Improvement in EDAS Precipitation Monthly Total Precipitation (sum all 3 hr forecasts)
Improvement in EDAS Soil Moisture Soil Moisture and Availability
Improvement in Warm Season EDAS Precip scores, 12 Aug – 12 Sep 2000 (22km)
Improvement in EDAS Precipitation scores, 1 Apr – 10 May 2001 (22km)
Improvement on 6h Precipitation Forecast
Impact on Warm Season (22km) Daily Forecast Precipitation Scores 12 Aug – 12 Sep 2000
Impact on Daily Forecast Precipitation Scores 1 Apr – 10 May 2001 (22km)
Fit to RAOBs 15 Feb - 31 Mar 2001 (48km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: pptasm)
Fit to RAOBs 12 Aug - 15 Sep 2000 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: pptasm)
Fit to RAOBs 1 Apr - 9 May 2001 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: pptasm)
Coop Daily versus Sum of Hourly Analyses Using Gage & Radar Estimates 23August
Coop Daily versus Sum of Hourly Analyses Using Gage&Radar Estimates 29December
Assimilating ‘Snow’ Has Big Negative Impact on Quality of EDAS Precipitation
Assimilating ‘Snow’ Has Little Impact on Quality of Daily Precipitation Forecasts
Complete Statistical Results for ALL Tests of precipitation assimilation
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Fit to RAOBs 1 Feb - 2 Mar 2001 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: new land-sfc)
Impact on Daily Forecast Precipitation Scores 13 Aug – 12 Sep 2000 (22km)
Complete Statistical Results for ALL Tests of new LSM
Preparations for Implementation
Tests of Full Bundle
Example : 00Z 16 August 2000 cycle
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Conclusions
Author: Eric Rogers and Geoff DiMego
E-mail: eric.rogers@noaa.gov
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