Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.6
Percent in May from April
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BTS 33-09
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Thursday, July 9,
2009 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.6 percent
in May from
its April level, declining for the third consecutive month to the lowest level
in 12 years, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation
Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1). The May decline was the smallest of the three consecutive decreases.
BTS, a part of
the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the May
decrease was the ninth decline in the Freight TSI in the last 10 months (Table
2). The index has declined 14.8 percent in that 10-month period. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The May Freight
TSI of 94.0 is the lowest level since June 1997 when it was 92.4. The Freight
TSI is down 16.7 percent from its historic peak of 112.9 reached in May 2006.
The 6.3 percent
decline in the first five months of 2009 was the largest in the last decade,
exceeding the 5.3 percent decline for the first five months of 2000 (Table 3).
The Freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
The
14.8 percent decline in the Freight TSI from May 2008 to May 2009 was the
largest May-to-May decline in the 20 years for which the TSI is calculated
(Table 4).
The freight
index is also down 14.6 percent in the five years from May 2004, the sixth
consecutive month in which the index declined for a five-year period. The index is down 8.4 percent in 10 years for
the fifth-ever and the largest 10-year decline in the 20-year history of TSI
data (Table 5). All these five 10-year
declines took place in first five months of 2009.
The TSI is a seasonally adjusted
index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of
2000. It includes historic data from
1990 to the present. Release of the June index is scheduled for Aug. 12.
BTS has issued
a technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services
Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 0.9 percent
in May from its April level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI May 2009 level of 109.4 was 7.3 percent lower than the
May 2008 level, the largest May-to-May decrease in the 20-year history of the
series, and exceeded the 6.1 percent decrease in 2002 caused by Sept. 11, 2001
terrorist attack (Table 7). Despite the recent declines, the passenger index is
up 6.8 percent in five years and 17.6 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined
freight and passenger TSI fell 0.7 percent in May from its April level (Table
8). The combined TSI May 2009 level of 97.4 was 13.0 percent lower than the May
2008 level, leaving the index at its lowest May level since 1998 (Table 9). The
combined index is down 9.6 percent in five years for the sixth five-year
decline in the history of the combined index, and is down 2.1 percent in 10
years for the third-ever 10-year decline in the index (Table 5). All these five-year and 10-year declines took
place consecutively in the past several months.
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
More on TSI
In this month's release, BTS
conducted its third comprehensive revision to the TSI in which all index
numbers through April 2009 were revised to reflect revisions to the source data
and changes in the estimated seasonal factors and the method for calculating
aggregation weights. More information about the comprehensive revision and
its effects on index numbers is provided under 2009 Comprehensive Revision at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
NOTE: TSI
numbers for January (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of
revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The January
Freight TSI is 97.8, revised from the 102.7 reported
in last month's release. The January Passenger TSI is 110.0, revised from 112.6. The January Combined TSI is 100.5, revised from 104.8. The TSI for February, March, April and May are preliminary.
TSI
revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers
considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary
TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More
information about the monthly revision policy, is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since November 2008 Percent Change by
Month (Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
November |
103.2 |
-2.2 |
111.8 |
-1.8 |
105.1 |
-2.1 |
December |
100.3 |
-2.8 |
110.8 |
-0.9 |
102.6 |
-2.4 |
JanuaryR |
97.8 |
-2.5 |
110.0 |
-0.7 |
100.5 |
-2.1 |
FebruaryP |
99.1 |
1.3 |
110.2 |
0.2 |
101.6 |
1.1 |
MarchP |
95.6 |
-3.6 |
108.8 |
-1.2 |
98.5 |
-3.0 |
AprilP |
94.6 |
-1.0 |
110.3 |
1.4 |
98.1 |
-0.4 |
MayP |
94.0 |
-0.6 |
109.4 |
-0.9 |
97.4 |
-0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009 Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
0.3 |
-0.6 |
2.3 |
(R) -2.5 |
February |
-1.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.9 |
(P) 1.3 |
March |
0.7 |
1.9 |
-1.4 |
(P) -3.6 |
April |
-0.4 |
-0.7 |
0.6 |
(P) -1.0 |
May |
2.3 |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
(P) -0.6 |
June |
-0.8 |
-1.0 |
-0.8 |
|
July |
-0.8 |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
|
August |
-2.3 |
0.7 |
-2.2 |
|
September |
2.5 |
-1.0 |
-1.6 |
|
October |
-1.5 |
1.7 |
-0.6 |
|
November |
-1.4 |
0.6 |
-2.2 |
|
December |
1.3 |
-0.1 |
-2.8 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2000-2009 Percent change from December of previous year December to May
Excel | CSV
2000 |
-5.3 |
6.0 |
-1.9 |
2001 |
2.2 |
-0.3 |
1.4 |
2002 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
2003 |
-1.9 |
-5.8 |
-3.0 |
2004 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2005 |
0.6 |
2.1 |
1.0 |
2006 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
2007 |
-0.2 |
3.6 |
0.8 |
2008 |
0.5 |
-0.3 |
0.3 |
2009P |
-6.3 |
-1.2 |
-5.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year Percent change in the May
Freight TSI (Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
2000 |
99.5 |
-3.1 |
2001 |
100.0 |
0.5 |
2002 |
101.1 |
1.1 |
2003 |
102.5 |
1.4 |
2004 |
110.1 |
7.4 |
2005 |
111.5 |
1.3 |
2006 |
112.9 |
1.2 |
2007 |
109.2 |
-3.3 |
2008 |
110.4 |
1.2 |
2009P |
94.0 |
-14.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years Percent Change to 2009 (May to May)
Excel | CSV
2008 |
1 |
-14.8 |
-7.3 |
-13.0 |
2007 |
2 |
-13.9 |
-8.0 |
-12.4 |
2006 |
3 |
-16.7 |
-2.1 |
-13.3 |
2005 |
4 |
-15.7 |
0.5 |
-11.9 |
2004 |
5 |
-14.6 |
6.8 |
-9.6 |
2003 |
6 |
-8.3 |
18.7 |
-2.0 |
2002 |
7 |
-7.0 |
15.9 |
-1.7 |
2001 |
8 |
-6.0 |
8.9 |
-2.8 |
2000 |
9 |
-5.5 |
8.5 |
-2.5 |
1999 |
10 |
-8.4 |
17.6 |
-2.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to May 2009 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009 Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.3 |
0.3 |
-0.2 |
(R) -0.7 |
February |
-0.1 |
-0.7 |
-1.0 |
(P) 0.2 |
March |
0.3 |
2.0 |
0.2 |
(P) -1.2 |
April |
0.5 |
-0.3 |
1.1 |
(P) 1.4 |
May |
0.2 |
2.4 |
-0.5 |
(P) -0.9 |
June |
-0.9 |
-2.1 |
-0.4 |
|
July |
0.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.2 |
|
August |
-0.9 |
1.0 |
-1.1 |
|
September |
1.1 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
|
October |
1.3 |
-0.8 |
-1.4 |
|
November |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
-1.8 |
|
December |
1.0 |
0.9 |
-0.9 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year Percent change in the May
Passenger TSI (Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
2000 |
100.9 |
8.5 |
2001 |
100.5 |
-0.4 |
2002 |
94.4 |
-6.1 |
2003 |
92.2 |
-2.3 |
2004 |
102.4 |
11.1 |
2005 |
108.9 |
6.3 |
2006 |
111.7 |
2.6 |
2007 |
118.9 |
6.4 |
2008 |
118.0 |
-0.8 |
2009P |
109.4 |
-7.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009 Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
0.5 |
-0.4 |
1.7 |
(R) -2.1 |
February |
-1.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.9 |
(P) 1.1 |
March |
0.6 |
1.9 |
-1.0 |
(P) -3.0 |
April |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
0.7 |
(P) -0.4 |
May |
1.7 |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
(P) -0.7 |
June |
-0.8 |
-1.3 |
-0.7 |
|
July |
-0.6 |
-0.3 |
0.6 |
|
August |
-2.0 |
0.8 |
-2.0 |
|
September |
2.2 |
-0.4 |
-1.3 |
|
October |
-0.8 |
1.1 |
-0.8 |
|
November |
-0.9 |
0.3 |
-2.1 |
|
December |
1.2 |
0.2 |
-2.4 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year Percent change in the May
Combined TSI (Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
2000 |
99.9 |
0.4 |
2001 |
100.2 |
0.3 |
2002 |
99.1 |
-1.1 |
2003 |
99.4 |
0.4 |
2004 |
107.8 |
8.4 |
2005 |
110.6 |
2.6 |
2006 |
112.4 |
1.6 |
2007 |
111.3 |
-1.0 |
2008 |
112.0 |
0.7 |
2009P |
97.4 |
-13.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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