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HPC Verification
Jump To
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed
24-Hourly QPF's
Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Threat Scores
and Observed Areal Coverage;
Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Bias
Annual HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
1993-2008
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
July 2008 to July 2009
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00")
July 2008 to July 2009
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3)
July 2008 to July 2009
6-Hourly QPF's
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Update
July 2008 to July 2009
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 1
July 2008 to July 2009
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 2
July 2008 to July 2009
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 3
July 2008 to July 2009
HPC vs. NWP Guidance - Threat Scores
August 2008 to July 2009
Days 4-5 QPF's
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
July 2008 to July 2009
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00"
July 2008 to July 2009
5-Day Total QPF's
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
July 2008 to July 2009
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00", 3.00", 4.00"
July 2008 to July 2009
Medium-Range Forecasts
Overview of data plotted on annual charts
Minimum Temperatures
Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2008)
Monthly Performance Charts (July 2008 - July 2009)
Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-July 2009)
Maximum Temperatures
Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2008)
Monthly Performance Charts (July 2008 - July 2009)
Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-July 2009)
Probability of Precipitation (PoP)
Monthly Performance Charts - 24-Hour PoP (July 2008 - July 2009)
Year-to-Date Performance Chart - 24-Hour PoP (January-July 2009)
Monthly Performance Charts - 12-Hour PoP (July 2008 - July 2009)
HPC Gridded Medium-Range Forecasts
How grids are verified
Monthly Performance Charts (July 2009)
Note: MAE = Mean Absolute Error
Forecasts prepared by HPC meteorologists
MOS/HPC/NDFD Minimum Temperature (Days 4-7)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD Maximum Temperature (Days 4-7)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD 12-Hour PoP (Days 4-7)
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Brier Score
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Products derived from forecasts prepared by HPC meteorologists
MOS/HPC/NDFD Dew Point Temperature (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD Wind Speed (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD Wind Direction (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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HPC/NDFD Cloud Cover (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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Mean Sea Level Pressure (PMSL)
HPC -vs- Guidance Anomaly Correlations
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