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Research Accomplishments
Milestones
Modeling and Forecasting Tools
To assist states, tribes, and other stakeholders conserve ecosystem services through proactive decision-making, the Ecosystem Services Research Program developed, or provided support for the development of a variety of models and other forecasting tools. These tools can be used to create and evaluate scenarios of future stressors and forecast their effects on ecosystem services. Using such tools, environmental managers will be better able to evaluate trade-offs among alternative resource management strategies and to help sustain ecosystem services.
Tools for Forecasting Regional Vulnerabilities and Management Scenarios
ESRP developed several tools to identify and predict vulnerable populations and forecast changes resulting from alternative management scenarios. Examples include:
A model that uses currently available data on the Mid-Atlantic region to project the effects of variables such as population growth and resource extraction on land cover, nonpoint source pollutants in surface water, nitrogen in groundwater, and spread of nonindigenous species. These results can be used to target regional priorities for additional monitoring and can help managers in other regions understand which of their resources may be vulnerable in the future.
An interactive tool to examine the vulnerability of both human and ecological populations to 31 source categories of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) in the Southeastern United States. The tool maps the location of HAPs as well as population centers, threatened and endangered species locations, and migratory bird pathways. EPA's regional office in Atlanta has used the tool to identify vulnerable human, vegetation, and wildlife populations for future monitoring and risk management efforts.
A Regional Growth Decision Tool
for use by North and South Carolina partners of the Sustainable Environment for Quality of Life (SEQL) project. The partnership is addressing current issues that affect the region's air, land, and water quality, and is providing plans for protecting the environment and quality of life in the future. This tool displays more than 100 metrics on water quality, landscape pattern, economics, and quality of life. It allows users to evaluate trade-offs between costs and benefits seen at the individual watershed versus the regional scale and between individual services or benefits (e.g., water quality vs. economic growth). As a direct result of SEQL, local leaders have formed an alliance to support strategic planning across regional boundaries. In addition, SEQL is enabling individual jurisdictions to consider land use and other issues on a regional rather than strictly local basis.
Models to Assess the Effects of Air Pollutants on Ecosystems
ESRP developed a number of models to assess the effects of air pollutants on a variety of ecosystems, including the following:
Watershed Deposition Tool - This tool maps air deposition estimates derived from an existing air quality model onto watershed hydrologic units. The tool supports development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) and related assessments. Specifically, it enables users to incorporate current atmospheric deposition and expected future reductions in deposition due to Clean Air Act regulations into TMDL analyses that, at present, do not consider air deposition. This shows promise for increasing management options and reducing the cost of meeting TMDL targets.
Chesapeake Bay Air Deposition Model - This model simulates the emission, regional transport, transformation, and deposition of reactive nitrogen, enabling this information to be combined with watershed and water body models for ecosystem and TMDL assessments of the Chesapeake Bay. It will help quantify the reduction in nitrogen load to Chesapeake Bay from atmospheric sources that is expected as a result of Clean Air Act regulations and restoration efforts. The model is currently being used by the Chesapeake Bay Program Office to develop the TMDL for the Chesapeake Bay.
Assessing Air Quality Impacts on Tampa Bay - This model simulates the emission, regional transport, transformation and deposition of reactive nitrogen in a coastal environment. This information can then be linked with watershed and water body models for ecosystem and TMDL assessments in Tampa Bay. A unique aspect of this model is that it incorporates the effects of sea salt on the impacts from reactive nitrogen. The model forecasts the reduction in nitrogen deposition stemming from court-ordered reductions of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from two Tampa Bay area power plants. It also forecasts the effects of other reductions to help ensure that TMDL targets for Tampa Bay are being met and to advance the restoration of Tampa Bay. It is currently being used by the Tampa Bay Estuary Program to develop strategies for reducing nitrogen as part of the TMDL implementation plan.
Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Platform - This model builds upon the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) platform to simulate the emission, regional transport, transformation, and deposition of reactive nitrogen and mercury for linkage with watershed and water body models. It is one of few models that provide a one-atmosphere, multi-pollutant forecast of deposition to ecosystems. This will improve the ability to predict the deposition of all atmospheric pollutants to ecosystems, thus supporting EPA's analyses of air regulations for nitrogen oxides and sulfur oxides, assessments of future scenarios, and evaluation of the impacts of atmospheric pollutants, as well as ecological and TMDL assessments
New Tools for Assessing and Conserving Ecosystem Services
A number of tools developed by ESRP from 2005 - 2007 are designed to help states, tribes, and other stakeholders assess and conserve ecosystem services.
ESRP funded a collaborative effort between The Nature Conservancy, Tellus Institute, and Tufts University to develop a new tool to help water resource managers balance human and environmental needs for water quality. The tool will enable users to simultaneously maximize use of water storage capacity, optimize the effectiveness of drought management measures, and meet key ecological flow needs based on real-time environmental conditions. An open-source computer code, the tool will be incorporated into the widely used Water Evaluation and Planning Tool, a water supply planning and management model that is available to every water utility in the United States. As of 2007, the tool has been used by two demonstration projects and is under consideration by the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection.