The Economic Research Division of the U.S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce (BFDC), a precursor to the BEA, first published estimates of national income in 1934.  The Senate requested official government estimates of national income to measure the effects of what we today call the Great Depression.

Simon Kuznets oversaw the completion of the BFDC’s first national income estimates in 1934 (National Income, 1929-1932).  Robert F. Martin and Robert R. Nathan, who also contributed to the new estimates in 1934, directed national income measurement at the BFDC from 1934 to 1935 and from 1935 to 1941, respectively. 

In the first report on national income in 1934, the BFDC provided two measures of income for the nation, national income paid out and national income produced.

• National income paid out measured the flow of income payments to individuals for the current production of goods and services.
  
  
• National income produced measured the value of net national product by adding a measure of business savings (or losses) to national income paid out.

In 1938, the BFDC began to provide monthly estimates of national income paid out. Transfer payments to individuals, such as Social Security benefits and veterans’ compensation, were soon added to this monthly measure, which then became known as income payments to individuals later that same year. In 1947, income payments to individuals would become known as personal income.


(1942-1947):

Mobilization for World War II, which required immense economic data for policy and planning, underscored the need for a measure of the productive capacity of the U.S. economy.  In particular, the large increases in government purchases for the war brought the need to assess the economy’s capacity to meet war production requirements while still providing adequate civilian, or non-war related, goods and services for individuals.  In response, the BFDC began estimating the measure Gross National Product (GNP) and its expenditure components.

The first Survey of Current Business article to include estimates of GNP was published in March 1942 (War Expenditures and National Production), with the first GNP series published that May (Preliminary Estimates of Gross National Product, 1929-41).  Initially, GNP was estimated using income data, and calculated as the sum of national income produced, business taxes, and capital depreciation. 

During the next several years up through 1947, the BFDC published numerous articles in the Survey of Current Business that presented new estimates of GNP expenditure components, such as consumer expenditures for various types of goods and services and gross private investment.

In 1947, the newly created Office of Business Economics (OBE), which eventually replaced the BFDC in 1953, incorporated its measures of income and product into the national income and product accounts (NIPAs).  The NIPAs, first published in a 1947 supplement to the Survey of Current Business, showed how the income and product measures related to one another and to the various economic transactions of business, government, and individuals.

Milton Gilbert, George Jaszi, Edward F. Denison, and Charles F. Schwartz were credited as the main authors of the NIPAs.  Milton Gilbert directed national income measurement at BFDC (and then OBE) from 1941 to 1949, and then became head of national accounts at the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC) from 1950 to 1961.  George Jaszi served first in the BFDC as an economist in the National Income Division, and then became Chief of the National Income Division (1949-1959), Assistant Director of OBE (1959-1963), and Director of OBE (1963-1985). 


World War II Era:

The BFDC played a unique role in the planning required for WWII.  Two key policy issues stemming from the war effort were determining the economy’s capacity to produce armaments and the severity of inflation. 

The first Survey of Current Business article on GNP, published in March 1942, was titled War Expenditures and National Production.  BFDC’s first quarterly estimates of GNP were completed at the request of the War Production Board in August 1942 (National Income and the War Effort - First Half of 1942).

In addition to GNP, several articles published in the Survey of Current Business assess issues such as the effectiveness of price controls, government war finances, industrial capacity, and the impact of war policies on individual savings and debt.


Analyzing Industries:

The BEA Digital Library features several Survey of Current Business articles analyzing industries and groups of industries.

An article on the alcoholic beverage industry published in 1939 (Alcoholic Beverage Industry Reestablished) assesses the state of the industry following the repeal of Prohibition.  Several articles analyze the impact of WWII on particular industry groups, such as railroads and electric power. Other articles present new price indexes for types of retail sales, such as a 1934 article on automobiles (Index of Sales of New Passenger Automobiles).