Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
000
FGUS73 KAPX 262019
ESFAPX
MIC011-033-055-135-165-262019-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
419 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2009
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES ENABLE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR LOCATIONS ON THE
BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...AU SABLE...AND RIFLE RIVERS IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ON THE PINE RIVER IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
...90 DAY HIGH FLOW FORECAST...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID APRIL 27, 2009 - JUNE 26, 2009
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD 7.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5
MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN 15.0 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 15.5
AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK 7.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.7
RIFLE RIVER
STERLING 6.0 3.8 4.5 5.7 6.0 6.6 6.8 7.9 8.5 9.4
PINE RIVER
RUDYARD 17.0 4.6 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.8 7.4 8.6 9.4 10.7
...90 DAY LOW FLOW FORECAST...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 10 THROUGH 90 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID APRIL 27, 2009 - JUNE 26, 2009
LOCATION FS 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD 7.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2
MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN 15.0 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8
AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK 7.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0
RIFLE RIVER
STERLING 6.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9
PINE RIVER
RUDYARD 17.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 AND 90 DAY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...
THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK
OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX FOR
MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS OF THE
PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES.
$$
JPB
