000
FXHW60 PHFO 090134
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING THE WESTERN ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 36N141W...FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO
29N151W...THEN WEST TO 30N170W. SINCE THIS RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...WE ARE SEEING TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 25N ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS FAVORING
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS...BUT OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS...SO VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED ON RADAR. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS RIDING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM PASS OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THESE CLOUDS ARE TOO THIN TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BLOCK THE SUN.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE SEEING NOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE GOVERNING HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ISLANDS TO DISRUPT TRADE FLOW. WE HAVE CHANGED
THE DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 FORECAST. GFS IS NOW CONSISTENTLY SHOWING WINDS
WEAKENING WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
REACH KAUAI LATE THURSDAY...THEN STALL NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU BEFORE
WEAKENING NEXT WEEKEND. GRIDS HAVE BEEN CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. WHILE
KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU WILL SEE INCREASED RAINFALL WHEN THE FRONT
ARRIVES...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW SIGNIFICANT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL BE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES. WE
HAVE ADDED THE KAUAI AND KAIWI CHANNELS TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ALL ADVISORIES LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THE CURRENT
ONE SUBSIDES...WITH WAVEWATCH SHOWING 6 FT 13 SECOND SWELL SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING. A THIRD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BUILD INTO THURSDAY. THE LATEST WAVEWATCH
RUN HAS THIS SWELL PEAKING AT 11 FT 16 SECONDS EARLY THURSDAY...SO
THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR KAUAI AND KAIWI CHANNELS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

$$
POWELL

000
ATHW40 PHFO 090032
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SUN NOV 9 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 9 2008

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...
EXTENDING FROM 30N170W TO 16N180. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT 15 MPH. ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 300
MILES AND 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL...OR JUST EAST OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NEARLY
STATIONARY...AND CLOUD TOPS RANGE FROM 30000 FT TO 36000 FT.

EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PATCHES OF BROKEN CIRRUS AND CIRROCUMULUS
CLOUDS EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
THESE CLOUDS COVER AN AREA ROUGHLY 500 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 11N175W TO 30N158W. ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...HIGH CLOUD MOTION IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CLOUD SHIELD...INCLUDING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HIGH CLOUD MOTION IS TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOW CLOUD FEATURES ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE ONLY
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY THE HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER EASTERN KAUAI...WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SLOPES OF THE KOOLAU AND WAIANAE RANGES ON OAHU. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER EASTERN MOLOKAI...MAUKA
LANAI...AND THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS. ON THE BIG ISLAND...BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE KOHALA RANGE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF NORTH AND SOUTH KONA
DISTRICT SOUTH OF KEAHOLE...AND KAU DISTRICT WEST OF WOOD VALLEY.

UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN
COVERAGE...AND ARE COMPOSED OF A MIX OF STABLE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SHOWERY OPEN CELL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TO THE WEST AT 25 MPH.

$$

BRAVENDER

000
FXHW60 PHFO 081948
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY REACHING KAUAI FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 36N141W...FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO
29N151W...THEN WEST TO 30N170W. SINCE THIS RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...WE ARE SEEING TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 25N ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS FAVORING
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS...BUT OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS...SO VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED ON RADAR. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS RIDING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM PASS OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THESE CLOUDS ARE TOO THIN TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BLOCK THE SUN.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE SEEING NOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE GOVERNING HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ISLANDS TO DISRUPT TRADE FLOW. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS
WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLIES AS THEY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY UNTIL...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE STATEWIDE. THIS MODEL RUN SHOWS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY EVENING. IF THE 18Z GFS
MODEL RUN SHOWS THE SAME LATE WEEK WIND SCENARIO...WE WILL CHANGE
THE DAYS 5 TO 7 GRIDS TO REFLECT IT IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES AND
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED TO EXPAND THIS ADVISORY AS
WINDS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TODAY AND TOMORROW. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH THE COMBINED SEAS WHICH COULD REACH 10 FEET.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THE CURRENT
ONE SUBSIDES...WITH WAVEWATCH SHOWING 6 FT 13 SECOND SWELL SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING. A THIRD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BUILD INTO THURSDAY. THE LATEST WAVEWATCH
RUN HAS THIS SWELL PEAKING AT 11 FT 16 SECONDS EARLY THURSDAY...SO
THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
&&

$$
POWELL

000
ATHW40 PHFO 081833
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC NOVEMBER 08 2008

PATCHES OF BROKEN CIRRUS AND CIRROCUMULUS CLOUDS EXTEND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND COVER AN
AREA ROUGHLY 500 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N175W TO
24N157W. ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CLOUD SHIELD...HIGH CLOUD
MOTION IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD...INCLUDING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HIGH CLOUD
MOTION IS TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOW CLOUD FEATURES ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY THE HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
EASTERN KAUAI AND WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE EASTERN SLOPES HALEAKALA
BETWEEN HANA AND KIPAHULU BELOW 6000 FT.

UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. EAST OF 150W...CLOUDS ARE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST IN COVERAGE AND ARE COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF CLOSED CELL
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ELEMENTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH. WEST OF 150W...CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN IN COVERAGE AND TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY OPEN CELL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT IS LOCATED NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 162W AND 170W...OR BETWEEN 400 MILES AND 900 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED IN
THE LAYERED CLOUDS. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND CONVECTIVE TOPS ONLY EXTEND UP TO 36000 FT.

$$

BRAVENDER

000
FXHW60 PHFO 081340
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
340 AM HST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TRADE
WINDS TO THE ISLANDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THIS
TIME. THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE A DISRUPTION IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TRADE WIND WEATHER TO
THE ISLANDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THEIR STRONGEST TOMORROW.

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...NORTH OF 40N. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON AS THESE PASS.
HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FINALLY BREAK THROUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT.
CURRENTLY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A FRONT OR SHEARLINE REACHING
THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BROUGHT THE
FEATURE IN WHILE THE GFS HAS ONLY THE LAST 2 RUNS BRINGING IT IN.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE TREND...BELIEVE IT TO BE
QUITE LIKELY THAT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE A SYSTEM
DISRUPTING THE TRADE WINDS.

OVERALL RAINFALL VALUES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN LIGHT. MANOA LYON
ARBORETUM RECEIVED 0.26 INCHES BETWEEN 8PM AND 11PM...WITH NOTHING
REPORTED BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM. THE HILO AIRPORT REPORTED IN WITH
0.37 INCHES BETWEEN 8PM AND 2AM...WITH 0.26 INCHES FALLING BETWEEN
8PM AND 11PM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE WINDIER ZONES...AND WILL
BE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE NEED TO EXPAND AS WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH TODAY AND/OR TOMORROW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE COMBINED
SEAS WHICH COULD REACH 10 FEET.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS NORTH OF 40N MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE
SENDING SWELL FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE ISLANDS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FORERUNNERS FROM THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD
START FILLING IN TONIGHT...PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT AT 6 FT 13 SECONDS.
THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER
FORERUNNERS FROM THE NEXT...LARGER SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST WAVE MODEL RUN HAS THIS SWELL PEAKING AT 10 FT
16 SECONDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND THIS SWELL HAS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

FORERUNNERS FROM A NEW SOUTH SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 17 SECONDS FROM 190
DEGREES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
&&

$$

000
ATHW40 PHFO 081207
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC NOVEMBER 08 2008

TO THE NORTHWEST...A DISSIPATING BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN 100
MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 27N 180 TO 27N 172W TO 30N 168W AND FURTHER
WEST AND NORTHEAST. EAST OF 174W THIS FEATURE CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ASSOCIATED LAYERED HIGH TO MIDDLE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...BUT A THIN BAND OF LAYERED LOW CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN FURTHER
WEST. THE CLOUDS WITHIN THIS BAND MOVED DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON
THEIR HEIGHT AND COMPOSITION...BUT THE FEATURE AS A WHOLE REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY.

TO THE SOUTH...MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 14N AND 05N. LAYERED HIGH TO MIDDLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON A JET
STREAM TO OBSCURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY LOWER FEATURES SOUTH OF THE CURVE
FROM 16N 180 TO 20N 169W TO 25N 162W TO 25N 158W TO 10N 143W.

OTHERWISE...MARINE STRATUS...STRATOCUMULUS...AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
PREVAILED ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS. THESE CLOUDS WERE ORGANIZED MAINLY
AS LOOSE BANDS CURVING AROUND FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH TO
NORTHEAST...THOUGH THESE BANDS DID MERGE INTO A NEARLY SOLID STRATUS
OVERCAST EAST OF THE CURVE FROM 29N 140W TO 26N 148W TO 22N 150W TO
19N 140W. ISOLATED SMALL CUMULI APPEARED THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THESE
CLOUDS INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH TIME. THEY GENERALLY ROSE TO
HEIGHTS OF 6000 TO 9000 FEET...AND MOVED TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST
AT AROUND 20 MILES AN HOUR...THOUGH NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 170W
THEY CURVED BACK TOWARD THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...LAYERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PARTLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES...BUT LOW CLOUD
COVER APPEARED TO CONSIST MAINLY OF MARINE STRATOCUMULI MOVING
ASHORE ALONG SLOPES FACING NORTH THROUGH EAST. RADAR DATA FROM NEAR
THE ISLANDS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF OAHU
AND OFFSHORE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF OAHU...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST ELSEWHERE.

$$

RYSHKO

000
FXHW60 PHFO 080630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THANKS TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SURPRISES THIS EVENING. TRADES CONTINUE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 400 PM
A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FAR TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
THIS HIGH. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW. TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A BIT OF A DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RAINFALL TODAY HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE WITH ONLY A FEW GAGES
RECEIVING ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER DRY AND STABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE USUAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
LEEWARD AREAS. AROUND MIDWEEK MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
TROUGHING ALOFT IN THE ISLANDS VICINITY. THIS MAY CAUSE A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER ACTIVITY. MUCH OF THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER ZONES DUE TO
THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER ZONES
AROUND SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG TRADES AND COMBINED SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 10 FEET.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORERUNNERS FROM THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD START FILLING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 13
SECONDS FROM 310 DEGREES. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO TUESDAY BUT
MAY GET A BIT OF REINFORCEMENT ON WEDNESDAY. FORERUNNERS FROM A
LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED ARRIVE SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WAVE MODEL HAS THIS SWELL PEAKING ON THURSDAY AT 11 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS FROM 310 DEGREES WHICH IS PLENTY BIG ENOUGH
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FORERUNNERS FROM A NEW SOUTH SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
17 SECONDS FROM 190 DEGREES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&


.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
&&

$$

000
ATHW40 PHFO 080518
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC NOVEMBER 08 2008

TO THE NORTHWEST...AN IRREGULAR BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN 100
MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 24N 180 TO 27N 176W TO 30N 170W AND FURTHER
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE CONSISTED MOSTLY OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
AND THEIR LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT A THIN BAND OF LAYERED LOW
CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN NEAR THE OCEAN SURFACE. THE CLOUDS WITHIN THE
BAND MOVED DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON THEIR HEIGHT AND COMPOSITION...
BUT THE FEATURE AS A WHOLE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY.

TO THE WEST...A COMPACT AND SHALLOW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
ENCOURAGED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
MILES OF THE POINT 21N 171W.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 14N AND 05N. LAYERED HIGH TO MIDDLE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
AND EARLIER CONVECTION SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON A JET STREAM TO
OBSCURE MOST LOWER FEATURES SOUTH OF THE CURVE FROM 13N 175W TO 16N
172W TO 22N 164W TO 18N 155W TO 14N 148W TO 08N 144W.

OTHERWISE...MARINE STRATOCUMULUS...STRATUS...AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
PREVAILED ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS. THESE CLOUDS WERE ORGANIZED MAINLY
AS LOOSE BANDS CURVING AROUND FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH TO
NORTHEAST...THOUGH THEY DID MERGE INTO A NEARLY SOLID OVERCAST EAST
OF THE CURVE FROM 29N 140W TO 26N 143W TO 22N 143W TO 20N 140W.
ISOLATED SMALL CUMULI APPEARED THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS
GENERALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 6000 TO 9000 FEET...AND MOVED TOWARD
THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 20 MILES AN HOUR...THOUGH NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE FROM 20N 170W TO 30N 146W THEY CURVED BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE LAYERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES...BUT LOW CLOUD COVER
APPEARED TO CONSIST MOSTLY OF THE MARINE STRATOCUMULI MOVING ASHORE
ALONG SLOPES FACING NORTH THROUGH EAST. AREAS WITH THE GREATEST LOW
CLOUD COVER WERE LIMITED MAINLY TO WINDWARD SLOPES FROM THE BIG
ISLAND TO OAHU...BUT REMNANTS OF LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DAYTIME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS STILL LINGERED ALONG A FEW WEST SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND. RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS
SHOWED AREAS OF RAIN OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU...SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE KAIWI CHANNEL...SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND
ALONG NORTHEAST SLOPES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AT
MOST ELSEWHERE.

$$

RYSHKO

000
FXHW60 PHFO 080130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THANKS TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FAR TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
THIS HIGH. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW. TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A BIT OF A DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RAINFALL TODAY HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE WITH ONLY A FEW GAGES
RECEIVING ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER DRY AND STABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE USUAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
LEEWARD AREAS. AROUND MIDWEEK MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
TROUGHING ALOFT IN THE ISLANDS VICINITY. THIS MAY CAUSE A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER ACTIVITY. MUCH OF THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER ZONES DUE TO THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER ZONES
AROUND SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG TRADES AND COMBINED SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 10 FEET.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORERUNNERS FROM THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD START FILLING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 13
SECONDS FROM 310 DEGREES. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO TUESDAY BUT
MAY GET A BIT OF REINFORCEMENT ON WEDNESDAY. FORERUNNERS FROM A
LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED ARRIVE SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WAVE MODEL HAS THIS SWELL PEAKING ON THURSDAY AT 11 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS FROM 310 DEGREES WHICH IS PLENTY BIG ENOUGH
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FORERUNNERS FROM A NEW SOUTH SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
17 SECONDS FROM 190 DEGREES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

BURKE

000
ATHW40 PHFO 080107
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SAT NOV 8 2008

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 8 2008

A WEAK LOW-CLOUD BAND IS MOVING WEST OVER THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
AND MAUI COUNTY. THE LEADING END OF THE BAND IS OVER THE KAIWI
CHANNEL AND THE TRAILING END IS NEAR CAPE KUMUKAHI...THE EAST TIP OF
THE BIG ISLAND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST LOWLAND
AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE HAMAKUA COAST
FROM HONOKAA TO OOKALA AND OVER THE KAU DESERT. CLOUDS ARE ISOLATED
OVER THE INTERIOR ABOVE ABOUT 5000 FEET OF ELEVATION. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS COVER MOST OF MAUI COUNTY BUT CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF MAUI...THE SUMMIT OF HALEAKALA...THE LANAI
LOWLANDS AND NORTHWEST MOLOKAI. CLOUDS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
OVER MOST OF OAHU BUT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE KOOLAU
MOUNTAINS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE EAST HALF OF KAUAI WHILE
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE WEST HALF.

THE CLOUDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI ARE PART OF A 150 MILE WIDE
BAND CENTERED FROM MOLOKAI TO THE BIG ISLAND TO 19N146W. THERE IS A
70 MILE WIDE GAP...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS...EXTENDING 70
MILES EAST FROM CAPE KUMUKAHI. THE BAND OVER AND EAST SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAD BEEN CONNECTED WITH ANOTHER CLOUD
BAND...THAT BAND IS NOW CENTERED FROM 23N150W TO 23N146W TO
19N140W.

A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND HAS PARTLY
BROKEN UP AND MOVED NORTH OF 30N. FRAGMENTS OF THE CLOUD BAND...NOW
STRETCHED OUT INTO CONVERGENCE LINES....ARE CENTERED FROM 30N147W TO
28N154W AND FROM 30N163W TO 26N166W. BOTH BANDS ARE 60 MILES WIDE.
THE EASTERN BAND CONTAINS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. THE WESTERN
ONE CONTAINS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TOWERING
CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
30N167W TO 23N180W. THE BAND IS 120 MILES WIDE AND CONTAINS BROKEN
LAYERED CLOUDS...WITH SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...CB... WITHIN
THE PART OF THE BAND SOUTHWEST OF 27N176E. THE CB TOPS EXTEND TO
49000 FT. THE BAND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH SHOWS FEATURES MAINLY ABOVE 24000 FT...
SHOWS A JET STREAM RUNNING FROM 15N180W...OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE AT
22N165W...OVER SOUTH POINT TO 15N140W. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH...CIRRUS...CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE JET WEST OF
150W. THE EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THE EDGE OF THE CIRRUS HAS SPREAD NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

$$
DONALDSON

000
FXHW60 PHFO 071949
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE ALOHA STATE...THANKS TO A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. TRADES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS
HIGH. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.
TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE WITH ONLY A FEW GAGES
RECEIVING ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER DRY AND STABLE SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE USUAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER ZONES DUE TO THE
INCREASING TRADE WINDS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER ZONES
AROUND SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG TRADES AND COMBINED SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 10 FEET.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORERUNNERS FROM THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD START FILLING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 13
SECONDS FROM 310 DEGREES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
TUESDAY BUT MAY GET A BIT OF REINFORCEMENT ON WEDNESDAY. FORERUNNERS
FROM A LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED ARRIVE SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE MODEL HAS THIS SWELL PEAKING ON THURSDAY AT 11
FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS FROM 310 DEGREES.

FORERUNNERS FROM A NEW SOUTH SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
17 SECONDS FROM 190 DEGREES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WITH HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY REACHING NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

BURKE

000
FXHW60 PHFO 071322
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
322 AM HST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS HAVE RETURNED...AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TRADES WILL
DELIVER A FEW SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS HAVE RETURNED...THANKS TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE ISLANDS HAS RESULTED IN A LOWER THAN NORMAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...OBSERVED TO BE BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING.
AS SUCH...INCOMING TRADE CLOUDS ARE NOT ABLE TO GROW SUFFICIENTLY
VERTICALLY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT RAINFALL...BUT RADAR AND
SATELLITE BOTH INDICATE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
WINDWARD WATERS SINCE SUNDOWN THURSDAY. ALSO AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
IS APPROACHING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND WILL DELIVER A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TODAY. WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PREVAILING UPWIND OF THE
OTHER ISLANDS...TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...ALLOWING THE INVERSION TO LIFT TO NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS...
BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIMIT TRADE SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. SO...WHILE POP VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR WINDWARD AREAS...ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CONSOLIDATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...AND WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GUSTY
TRADES WILL START EASING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT
WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY PEPPER OUR SKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN EASING UP ON THEIR THICKNESS...
AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE ENOUGH TO BE OF MUCH
CONSEQUENCE.

ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE AS TO THE MECHANISM...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN ABOUT 7 TO 10
DAYS. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
AND NIIHAU WAS CANCELLED A SHORT WHILE AGO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES...AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED IF WINDS INCREASE ANY FURTHER.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

BIRCHARD

000
FXHW60 PHFO 070622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
822 PM HST THU NOV 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVELY DRY...DELIVERING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
WINDWARD AREAS. AS THE TRADES STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...SOME
SPRINKLES WILL SPREAD TO LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STABLE SO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS ARE BUILDING OVER THE ISLANDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE NORTH
OF KAUAI STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTH. STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE ISLANDS HAS RESULTED IN A LOWER THAN NORMAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...OBSERVED TO BE BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...INCOMING TRADE CLOUDS ARE NOT ABLE TO
GROW SUFFICIENTLY VERTICALLY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL SLIDE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...ALLOWING THE INVERSION TO LIFT TO NEAR NORMAL
HEIGHTS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL LIMIT TRADE SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. SO...WHILE POP
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR WINDWARD AREAS...ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW.

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ABOUT 250 TO 400 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
IS MOVING ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WOULD BRING IT IN TO WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...BUT WITH FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPWIND OF THE
OTHER ISLANDS...NOT MUCH RAINFALL IN SIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A BOOST IN THE TRADES TO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GUSTY TRADES WILL START EASING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY PEPPER OUR SKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN EASING UP ON THEIR THICKNESS...
AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE ENOUGH TO BE OF MUCH
CONSEQUENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU...AND WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
4 AM FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR SELECTED
WATERS WILL BE GO INTO EFFECT WITH ISSUANCE OF THE 10 PM COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EFFECTIVE 10 PM FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL...MAALAEA
BAY...ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL...WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

BIRCHARD