DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 945 AM EDT FRI DEC 19 2008
...DRASTIC IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT STATUS IN MOST AREAS FROM LAST WEEK`S RAIN...
SYNOPSIS...
TWO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS OCCURRED IN THE WEEK FROM DECEMBER 10-17. THIS BROUGHT SOME AREAS UP AT LEAST A CATEGORY IN STATUS.
ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS BELOW ARE APPROXIMATE:
D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE LEFT THE REGION.
D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN NORTH CAROLINA IN CLAY COUNTY AND THE EASTERN HALF OF CHEROKEE COUNTY.
D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN NORTH CAROLINA IN THE WESTERN HALF OF CHEROKEE COUNTY. IN TENNESSEE THEY COVER ALL OR PARTS OF POLK, MONROE, BLOUNT, KNOX, SEVIER, JEFFERSON, COCKE, GREENE, WASHINGTON, AND UNICOI COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE KNOXVILLE AND JOHNSON CITY METRO AREAS.
D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT COVERS ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, INCLUDING BRISTOL AND NORTON CITIES. IN TENNESSEE THIS COVERS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THE CENTRAL VALLEY, AND MOST OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE CHATTANOOGA, KNOXVILLE, AND TRI-CITIES METRO AREAS.
D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) CONDITIONS COVER MOST OF MARION COUNTY, TENNESSEE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A THIN SLIVER OF FAR WESTERN MARION COUNTY, WHERE NO DROUGHT EXISTS AT THIS TIME.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA, AND A LARGE PORTION OF EAST TENNESSEE ARE STILL LISTED AS EITHER STATE OR FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL DISASTERS DUE TO THE DROUGHT.
THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A RELATIVELY INACTIVE AGRICULTURAL SEASON, SO IMPACTS MAY BE HIDDEN BY WHAT APPEAR TO BE NORMAL CONDITIONS. WE ARE OUT OF THE NORMALLY DRIER SEASON SO CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY IMPROVE. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE MADE MANY FIELDS INTO MUD HOLES.
SPRINGS, WELLS, AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE DATE. LEVELS ARE DROPPING BACK TOWARD NORMAL BUT AT SLOW RATES, DUE TO HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK. THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT THE DROUGHT IS EASING. SOME WATER DISTRICTS ARE STILL ON LOCAL RESTRICTIONS AND SOME AREAS WITH WELLS AND SPRINGS ARE STILL ON THE DRY SIDE, DEPENDING ON RECENT LOCAL RAINFALL. FOR INFORMATION ON LOCAL WATER RESTRICTIONS, PLEASE CALL YOUR WATER BOARD.
SOME AREAS ARE REQUIRING BURN PERMITS. CONTACT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. SEE STATE WEBSITES AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN AREA`S PRECIPITATION. LONG TERM RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION OF A REGION`S RAIN SITUATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2008:
SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM CHATTANOOGA 82.44 107.02 -24.58 77 KNOXVILLE 79.18 94.50 -15.32 84 TRI-CITIES 56.10 81.23 -25.13 69 NWS MORRISTOWN 64.91 87.33 -22.42 74
RAIN TOTALS OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH BETTER INDICATOR OF AN AREA`S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER DRAINAGE FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2008:
BASIN RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM SOUTH HOLSTON 65.38 85.37 -19.99 77 WATAUGA 67.11 90.44 -23.33 74 BOONE 65.46 87.21 -21.75 75 CHEROKEE 63.85 84.67 -20.82 75 DOUGLAS 67.48 91.09 -23.61 74 FONTANA 83.84 113.84 -30.00 74 NORRIS 68.12 88.71 -20.59 77 MELTON HILL 72.98 96.28 -23.30 76 CHATUGE 76.29 114.17 -37.88 67 NOTTELY 85.07 105.94 -20.87 80 HIWASSEE 78.91 110.51 -31.63 71 FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO 69.08 94.09 -25.01 73 WATTS BARR 77.97 99.78 -21.81 78 CHICKAMAUGA 69.41 103.02 -33.61 67 NICKAJACK 69.76 104.06 -34.30 67 GUNTERSVILLE 68.69 104.61 -35.92 66
***ATTENTION! THE FIRST DROUGHT STATEMENT OF 2009 WILL HAVE ONLY YEAR TO DATE RAIN TOTALS. SINCE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT IS EASING, THERE IS NO NEED FOR TWO YEAR RAIN TOTALS.***
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION DURING DECEMBER THUS FAR HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THE WHOLE, BUT WITH DRASTIC SWINGS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER, TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON.
THE PERIOD OF JANUARY THROUGH MARCH IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH ABOUT NORMAL PRECIPITATION WHICH, IF THIS VERIFIES, WOULD MEAN MORE RAIN THAN SNOW, IN GENERAL.
FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRY ON THE WHOLE.
WE ARE IN THE SEASON WHERE FREQUENT FRONTS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARE MORE TYPICAL. THE TYPICALLY "RAINY" SEASON LASTS FROM DECEMBER THROUGH ABOUT MAY, SO THIS SEASON WILL DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT HOW THE DROUGHT WILL BEHAVE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE LATEST OUTLOOK (ISSUED DECEMBER 18) IS FOR THE DROUGHT TO IMPROVE REGION-WIDE.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
DURING THE LAST WEEK STREAMS IN THE REGION HAVE RISEN DRAMATICALLY AND THEN SLOWLY FALLEN, DUE TO HEAVY RAINS. THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT THE WATER TABLE IS RISING AND THE DROUGHT IS EASING. MANY PEOPLE IN THE AREA DO NOT REMEMBER THAT DECEMBER NORMALLY BEGINS THE FLOOD SEASON.
THE OUTLOOK FOR LARGE TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH THE END OF 2008 IS FOR A LESS THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM AND THE NUMBER OF HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE HYDROGRAPHY OF THE INDIVIDUAL STREAM. THINGS LIKE LOCAL GEOGRAPHY, WHETHER SINKHOLES ACCOUNT FOR MUCH UNDERGROUND STORAGE, LOCAL LAND USE, FLORA, AND SO FORTH, WILL ALSO HAVE AN INFLUENCE.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR BEFORE JANUARY 16, 2009 DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. IF NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR IN THE DROUGHT SITUATION, IT WILL BE LATER THAN SOONER. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND KEEP YOU ABREAST.
RELATED WEB SITES...
FOR ONE-STOP SHOPPING ON THE DROUGHT IN THE REGION GO TO HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX/HYDRO/DROUGHT07/MAIN.PHP
OR YOU CAN GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV THEN CLICK ON THE EAST TENNESSEE REGION, AND THEN CLICK ON THE DROUGHT INFORMATION LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE HOME PAGE.
YOU MAY ALSO VISIT WWW.TVA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LAKES LEVELS, STREAMFLOWS, AND RAINFALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY SYSTEM.
STREAMFLOW DATA CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AT HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT AND THEN CLICKING ON YOUR STATE OF INTEREST.
ADDITIONAL LONG TERM STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE NWS MORRISTOWN "ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES" WEBSITE AT HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MRX
THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT HTTP://BURNSAFETN.ORG
THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT WWW.DOF.VIRGINIA.GOV
THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES IS LOCATED AT WWW.DFR.STATE.NC.US
FOR SPECIFIC DATA, DROUGHT INDICES, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT PICTURE WITH CLICKABLE ZOOMING, GO TO HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
APPRECIATION FOR THE DATA IN THIS DOCUMENT GOES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY (TVA), UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS), THE STATES OF TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA, THE COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY, THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY, THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES, THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE (NPS), THE NATIONAL FOREST SERVICE (NFS), THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA AT LINCOLN FOR HOSTING THE DROUGHT MONITOR WEBSITE, AND NUMEROUS COUNTY, CITY, AND UTILITY OFFICIALS. ALSO, THANKS TO VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS INCLUDING TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS AND NEWSPAPERS, FOR ASKING THE QUESTIONS THE DRIVE THE GATHERING OF DATA AND INFORMATION ON DROUGHT IMPACTS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS PLEASE CONTACT:
BRIAN BOYD SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST/METEOROLOGIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 5974 COMMERCE BLVD. MORRISTOWN, TN 37814 423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY; FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE) 423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS; MAY GET VOICE MAIL) 423-586-6429 (FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE, NON-MEDIA CALLS) EMAIL: BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV WEBSITE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX
NOTE: IN THE EVENT THE ABOVE PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE, OTHER STAFF MEMBERS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP YOU.