Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.7 Percent
in September from August
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BTS 51-07
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - The
Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.7 percent in September from
its August level, declining for the fifth time in the last six months, the U.S.
Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported
today (Table 1).
The
September fall was the largest decline since November 2006 and the sixth
decline this year (Table 2). At 108.1, the
freight TSI is at its lowest level since January 2004 and is down 4.5 percent
from its peak of 113.1 achieved in November 2005. For additional historical
data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
For the first nine
months of 2007, the freight TSI was down 0.7 percent, recording its fourth decline
in the past five years for the first nine months of the year (Table 3). The index had been slightly positive for the
year through August but the September decline pushed it into negative
territory.
The
September freight TSI of 108.1 was down 1.6 percent from its September 2006
level, the second consecutive September-to-September decline, and the largest
September-to-September decline since 2000 (Table 4).
The
September index is at its lowest September level since September 2003, 2.1
percent lower than the September 2005 level and 1.7 percent lower than the
September 2004 level. Despite the recent
declines, the freight index has increased 5.4 percent in five years and 12.6
percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The TSI is an index of the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by for-hire
transportation industries. It includes
historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under
development and is considered experimental. The seasonally adjusted index
measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the October index is scheduled for Dec.
12.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers rose 1.8
percent in September from its August level, rising for the third consecutive
month (Table 6). The Passenger TSI September
2007 level of 117.2 was 3.9 percent higher than the September 2006 level, marking
six consecutive annual increases since September 2001 (Table 7). For the first nine
months of 2007, the passenger TSI rose 2.6 percent, the sixth consecutive year
in which the index has increased during the first nine months but the rate of
growth has declined each year since 2004 (Table 3). The passenger index is up 24.8 percent in
five years and 30.3 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger TSI
fell 0.1 percent in September from its August level, declining after a one-month
increase (Table 8). The combined TSI September 2007 level of 109.9 was 0.3
percent lower than the September 2006 level (Table 9). For the first nine months of 2007, the combined TSI rose 0.1
percent (Table 3). The combined index is up 10.0 percent in five years and 16.9
percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
3rd Quarter Changes
On a
quarterly basis, the Freight TSI declined 0.7 percent in the third quarter,
declining for the second consecutive quarter. The freight index has declined in
five of the last seven quarters beginning with the first quarter of 2006 (Table
10). The Passenger TSI rose 2.1 percent
in the third quarter. The passenger
index rose in all but three quarters over the last four years, beginning with
the third quarter of 2003 (Table 11). The Combined TSI was flat for the third quarter (Table 12).
More on TSI
Note: TSI numbers for May (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were
revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation
services. The May Freight TSI is 109.2, revised from the 109.7 reported in the October
release. The May Passenger TSI is 116.5, revised from 115.5. The May Combined
TSI is 110.6, revised from 110.8. The TSI for June, July, August and
September are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI
is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered
preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and
replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information
about the monthly revision policy, the 2007 comprehensive revision conducted
with the July release and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since March 2007
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
March |
109.8 |
1.1 |
114.2 |
2.2 |
110.5 |
1.4 |
April |
109.3 |
-0.4 |
114.7 |
0.5 |
110.3 |
-0.2 |
MayR |
109.2 |
-0.1 |
116.5 |
1.5 |
110.6 |
0.3 |
JuneP |
108.9 |
-0.2 |
114.7 |
-1.5 |
110.0 |
-0.6 |
JulyP |
108.5 |
-0.4 |
114.8 |
0.1 |
109.7 |
-0.2 |
AugustP |
108.9 |
0.4 |
115.1 |
0.2 |
110.1 |
0.3 |
SeptemberP |
108.1 |
-0.7 |
117.2 |
1.8 |
109.9 |
-0.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.5 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
February |
3.0 |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
March |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
April |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
May |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
2.4 |
(R) -0.1 |
June |
0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
(P) -0.2 |
July |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
(P) -0.4 |
August |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
(P) 0.4 |
September |
0.2 |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
(P) -0.7 |
October |
0.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
|
November |
1.2 |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
|
December |
-0.4 |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to Date Change, 1998-2007
Percent change from December of previous year
December to September
Excel | CSV
1998 |
3.1 |
0.2 |
2.2 |
1999 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
2000 |
-5.9 |
7.7 |
-1.8 |
2001 |
-0.4 |
-21.5 |
-7.0 |
2002 |
5.4 |
2.8 |
4.7 |
2003 |
-0.2 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
2004 |
1.7 |
4.6 |
2.5 |
2005 |
-0.5 |
4.5 |
0.7 |
2006 |
-1.3 |
3.6 |
-0.1 |
2007P |
-0.7 |
2.6 |
0.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
September Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
99.8 |
4.0 |
1999 |
104.0 |
4.2 |
2000 |
98.8 |
-5.0 |
2001 |
97.4 |
-1.4 |
2002 |
102.5 |
5.2 |
2003 |
104.4 |
1.8 |
2004 |
109.9 |
5.3 |
2005 |
110.4 |
0.4 |
2006 |
109.9 |
-0.5 |
2007P |
108.1 |
-1.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Transportation
Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2007
(September to September)
Excel | CSV
2006 |
1 |
-1.6 |
3.9 |
-0.3 |
2005 |
2 |
-2.1 |
5.4 |
-0.3 |
2004 |
3 |
-1.7 |
11.5 |
1.4 |
2003 |
4 |
3.5 |
19.2 |
7.2 |
2002 |
5 |
5.4 |
24.8 |
10.0 |
2001 |
6 |
11.0 |
47.9 |
19.6 |
2000 |
7 |
9.4 |
14.2 |
9.9 |
1999 |
8 |
3.9 |
20.6 |
8.0 |
1998 |
9 |
8.3 |
30.1 |
13.8 |
1997 |
10 |
12.6 |
30.3 |
16.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to September 2007 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.2 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
February |
1.8 |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
March |
1.1 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
April |
0.7 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
May |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
(R) 1.5 |
June |
1.6 |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
(P) -1.5 |
July |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
(P) 0.1 |
August |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
(P) 0.2 |
September |
-0.2 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
(P) 1.8 |
October |
2.2 |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
|
November |
-0.9 |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
|
December |
-0.1 |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
September Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
90.1 |
0.1 |
1999 |
97.2 |
7.9 |
2000 |
102.6 |
5.6 |
2001 |
79.2 |
-22.8 |
2002 |
93.8 |
18.5 |
2003 |
98.2 |
4.7 |
2004 |
105.1 |
7.0 |
2005 |
111.1 |
5.7 |
2006 |
112.7 |
1.4 |
2007P |
117.2 |
3.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.4 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
February |
2.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
March |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
April |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
May |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
(R) 0.3 |
June |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
(P) -0.6 |
July |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
(P) -0.2 |
August |
-0.1 |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
(P) 0.3 |
September |
0.1 |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
(P) -0.1 |
October |
0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
|
November |
0.6 |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
|
December |
-0.3 |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
September TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
96.6 |
2.8 |
1999 |
101.8 |
5.4 |
2000 |
100.0 |
-1.8 |
2001 |
91.9 |
-8.1 |
2002 |
99.9 |
8.7 |
2003 |
102.5 |
2.6 |
2004 |
108.4 |
5.7 |
2005 |
110.3 |
1.8 |
2006 |
110.2 |
-0.1 |
2007P |
109.9 |
-0.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10: Freight Transportation
Services Index Change by Quarter, 1998-2007
Percentage change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1998 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
-1.3 |
0.1 |
1999 |
2.9 |
-0.4 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
2000 |
-4.8 |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
-0.9 |
2001 |
1.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
2002 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2003 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
3.5 |
2004 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
2005 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
2006 |
-0.5 |
1.8 |
-2.5 |
-0.9 |
2007 |
0.8 |
(P)
-0.8 |
(P)
-0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11: Passenger Transportation
Services Index Change by Quarter, 1998-2007
Percentage change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1998 |
-0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
3.9 |
1999 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
-1.9 |
2000 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
-1.6 |
2001 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-21.0 |
15.2 |
2002 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
4.1 |
2003 |
-4.0 |
-0.2 |
5.0 |
2.3 |
2004 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
2005 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
-2.1 |
2006 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2007 |
0.0 |
(P)
0.5 |
(P)
2.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12: Combined Transportation
Services Index Change by Quarter, 1998-2007
Percentage change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1998 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
-0.8 |
1.2 |
1999 |
2.0 |
-0.2 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
2000 |
-2.1 |
0.5 |
-0.2 |
-1.2 |
2001 |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
-7.4 |
3.9 |
2002 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
2.6 |
2003 |
-2.2 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
2004 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
-0.1 |
1.0 |
2005 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
2006 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
-1.6 |
-0.4 |
2007 |
0.6 |
(P)
-0.5 |
(P) 0.0 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The
TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is
being examined for refinements in dataSOURCEs, methodologies and
interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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