|
Tropical Depression ISELLE
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102008
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008
THE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING...LEAVING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD...AND AGAIN EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ISELLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT 25-30 KT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. WITH STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS BECOMING MORE
SPORADIC...ISELLE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
ISELLE HAS MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...BUT THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION. DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHWARD INITIAL LOCATION...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 18.4N 112.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 18.6N 113.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1800Z 18.8N 114.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0600Z 19.0N 115.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1800Z 19.1N 115.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.1N 117.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
|
|
|
|