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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on May 5, 2009
Updated: Tue May 5 08:58:04 UTC 2009
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
D4 | Fri, May 08, 2009 - Sat, May 09, 2009 |
D7 | Mon, May 11, 2009 - Tue, May 12, 2009 |
D5 | Sat, May 09, 2009 - Sun, May 10, 2009 |
D8 | Tue, May 12, 2009 - Wed, May 13, 2009 |
D6 | Sun, May 10, 2009 - Mon, May 11, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050857
SPC AC 050857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY ON DAY 4 /FRI
MAY 8/...AND THEN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE ON DAY 5 /SAT MAY 9/ WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO NERN STATES. BROAD
CYCLONIC AND FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD /DAY 6...SUN MAY 10/ FROM THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID ATLANTIC
STATES. MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD
OCCUR BY DAY 8 /TUE MAY 12/ AS A BROAD TROUGH AMPLIFIES EWD ACROSS
THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WSWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
...DAY 4 /FRI MAY 8/...
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE SRN PLAINS /ERN OK AND NERN TX/ INTO AR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN EARLY MORNING MCS. STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH ANOTHER MCS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
...BEYOND DAY 4...
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING TSTMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS WILL TEND TO BE LOCATED S OF
STRONG FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL
SEVERITY AND PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
AREA BEYOND DAY 4.
..PETERS.. 05/05/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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