Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions: 1
000 FGUS73 KILX 271642 ESFILX ILC009-017-025-033-057-079-095-101-113-123-125-129-137-143-147-155- 159-167-169-179-183-203-281642- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1142 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES...AHPS...ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...NWS...TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS... IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS FOR THE ILLINOIS...SANGAMON...MACKINAW AND SPOON RIVERS AS WELL AS SALT CREEK...AND THE 95 TO 5 PERCENT COLUMNS FOR THE VERMILION...EMBARRAS AND LITTLE WABASH RIVERS...INDICATE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...THE CHANCES OF THE RIVER RISING ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE USING THE TABLE BELOW THIS SECTION... THE SANGAMON RIVER AT OAKFORD HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 471 FEET. WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 471 FEET. EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID OCT. 26 2008 - JAN. 24 2009 ALL STAGES IN FEET LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ILLINOIS RIVER HENRY 23.0 15.9 16.5 17.9 20.3 22.9 24.4 27.0 28.3 31.3 PEORIA 18.0 12.8 13.0 13.6 15.7 19.3 20.9 23.3 24.4 27.2 HAVANA 14.0 8.7 10.4 12.3 13.8 15.4 16.4 19.2 19.8 23.7 BEARDSTOWN 14.0 10.9 11.2 12.4 14.2 17.1 18.5 21.3 24.7 28.9 SPOON RIVER LONDON MILLS 15.0 4.1 5.7 7.5 9.6 10.6 12.3 14.3 16.9 19.8 SEVILLE 22.0 8.2 9.8 10.9 13.4 14.7 15.8 18.6 21.8 24.1 MACKINAW RIVER CONGERVILLE 13.0 3.0 4.4 5.2 7.2 8.3 9.4 10.4 12.7 16.2 SANGAMON RIVER MONTICELLO 13.0 7.1 9.5 11.2 12.3 12.9 13.3 14.0 14.5 16.8 RIVERTON 23.0 6.7 9.6 12.5 15.2 16.8 17.9 19.4 21.9 24.8 PETERSBURG 23.0 6.8 7.6 9.0 11.2 13.4 15.4 18.6 22.6 25.9 SALT CREEK GREENVIEW 16.0 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.8 10.2 10.8 11.9 14.2 17.3 LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- SANGAMON RIVER OAKFORD 471.0 459 461 463 464 466 468 469 471 473 CHANDLERVILLE 456.6 446 448 449 451 453 455 456 459 460 LOCATION FS (FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- VERMILION RIVER DANVILLE 18.0 3.6 4.2 6.5 10.3 14.1 18.5 20.3 LITTLE WABASH RIVER CLAY CITY 16.0 8.0 9.5 14.2 19.3 20.6 22.3 23.5 EMBARRAS RIVER STE MARIE 19.0 2.4 2.8 5.8 10.6 16.6 20.4 21.7 LAWRENCEVILLE 30.0 20.3 20.7 23.2 27.0 31.8 35.4 36.1 NOTES... THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS). ___________________________________________________________________ FOR MORE INFORMATION... VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN (USE LOWER CASE) FOR MORE OFFICIAL NWS RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION. TO VIEW GRAPHICAL AHPS INFORMATION...INCLUDING FORECASTS...SELECT AHPS/RIVER INFO FROM THE LIST ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE. FULL AHPS GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS IN THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS SERVICE AREA. FOR 30 TO 90 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...VISIT THE WEB PAGE OF THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV (USE LOWER CASE) $$ DRH