Statistical Method Developed to Predict Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures
February 27, 2007
Michael Alexander, Cecile Penland, Luda Matrosova and James Scott, researchers at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES) in Boulder, CO, have developed a statistical method to predict seasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical and north Pacific Ocean. The model is also used to forecast the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the time series indicating the magnitude and sign of the leading climate pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies. To date general circulation models have had very limited success in predicting SSTs in midlatitudes. The statistical forecasts exhibit significant skill over much of the Pacific, for two-to-three seasons in advance and up to a year in some locations, particularly for forecasts initialized in winter. The predicted PDO is significantly correlated with observations for forecasts of up to one year in advance.
Background:
The statistical method, termed linear inverse modeling (LIM), has proved to
be successful in predicting El Ni–o conditions in the tropical Pacific.
Here LIM has been extended to include the north Pacific, where both
numerical and statistical models have had limited success in forecasting
SSTs. The ESRLÐCIRES research team focused on predicting the PDO as it is
an important index associated with widespread changes in climate and
ecosystems over the Pacific/North American region. The LIM-based PDO
forecasts are more skillful than other statistical methods, such as
persistence or autoregressive models, and have comparable skill to LIM
forecasts of SSTA associated with El Niño.
Significance:
This experimental tool shows significant promise as a viable means to aid
in forecasting climate events at longer lead-times and may be especially
useful for fishery managers and hydrologists. This research supports NOAA's
mission goal of understanding climate variability and change to enhance
society's need to plan and respond.
Contact: Michael Alexander | More Information: |