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National Weather Service
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Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
PCU 4: Evaluate NWP and Value-Added Guidance for Precipitation Forecasting
Producer: Rich Cianflone (NWS/COMET)
Description of Job Duty Competency to be Achieved
Apply knowledge of numerical models and
value-added guidance products to forecast quantitative precipitation.
Description of Need
As a part of forecasting quantitative
precipitation, forecasters need to understand the performance characteristics
and underlying physics of the operational numerical models and value-added
guidance.
Specific Job Task Skills and Knowledge
1.� Assess model initial analysis - compare NWP
model guidance (global through mesoscale, including ensembles) to remotely sensed
and in situ observations/data (initial conditions).
2.� Determine which model(s) most accurately
represent the current and future state of the atmosphere in your area.
C����� Reconcile
model differences as they pertain to precipitation forecasts through knowledge
of:
-��� Model precipitation processes and
schemes
-��� Model physics
-��� Impact of resolution and coordinate
systems
-��� Model biases and performance
characteristics
C����� Assess
the relative accuracy of each NWP model and the consistency of each between
successive model runs (continuity) as they pertain to precipitation.� Objectively identify 3, 7, and 14 day
trends.
C����� Determine
NWP model accuracy with respect to speed of movement, intensity, storm and
frontal positions, areal coverage and precipitation amount etc.
3.� Using knowledge of strengths and limitations,
evaluate and integrate value-added precipitation guidance, for example:
C
NCEP/HPC
C
MOS
C
LAMP
C
Other local guidance
4.� Integrate all guidance, reconcile differences,
and adjust expectations to produce QPF
Instructional Components
Instructional
Component 4.1:
Web Site: Quantitative Precipitation
Forecasting Overview.� Materials
on this Web site provide training on how to evaluate NWP and value-added
guidance for precipitation forecasting.
Instructional
Component 4.2:
Web Module (Proposed) - NWP Model Verification.� This module will describe how to evaluate
operational model and value-added guidance performance for a region of
interest. This component should include exercises on how to use the
verification NPVU Web page >http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/npvu/
when preparing a precipitation forecast.
Instructional
Component 4.3:
Web module: Understanding Data Assimilation:
How Models Create Their Initial Conditions.� Module on how deficiencies in analyzing the initial state of the
atmosphere impacts models performance and precipitation forecasts.� Explain how in data assimilation, quality
control, and analysis of the initial state of the atmosphere can impact
numerical models.
Instructional
Component 4.4:
Web Module: Model Structure and Dynamics.
This module describes the impact of model resolution and coordinate systems on
model performance and precipitation forecasts.
Instructional
Component 4.5:
Web Module: Influence of Model Physics on NWP
Forecasts.� This module describes
the impact of model physics on model performance and precipitation forecasts.
Includes discussion of physical processes that are parameterized in mesoscale
models and the possible impact of these parameterization schemes.
Instructional
Component 4.6:
Web Module: How Models Produce Precipitation
and Clouds.� Module on the impact
of model precipitation processes and CP schemes on model performance and
precipitation forecasts.
Instructional
Component 4.7:
Web Module (Proposed): Using Value-added Precipitation Guidance
Products.� This module will describe how
to use various value-added precipitation guidance products.� It will include descriptions of how various
value-added products are produced and their predictands.
Instructional Component 4.8:
Local Case Studies.� Local
offices will provide examples of cases that illustrate model performance
characteristics specific to their areas.�
Geographically similar groups of WFOs may hold teletraining sessions highlighting
training issues pertaining to their regions.
Instructional Component 4.9:
Interactive Case Studies.�
This component should include case studies that illustrate how to
account for and reconcile various model forecasts.� Done, (HPFF and RPC/HPC Hydromet Course Labs and their CD and
online versions)
Instructional Component 4.10:
Bibliography.� An on-line
bibliography/glossary of various precipitation-related reports could be
provided.
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Precipitation Forecasting PDS page