National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KTWC 050358 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 858 PM MST WED MAR 4 2009 .SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED DRY AND RATHER WARM WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN STATES WILL BRING A MODERATE COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. && .DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH DOUGLAS AND THE SAFFORD AGRICULTURAL STATION BREAKING RECORDS. DOUGLAS REACHED A HIGH OF 82 DEGS WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGS SET IN 1991...AND SAFFORD AG REACHED 83 DEGS WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGS SET IN 1972. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SPOTS APPROACHED RECORD HIGHS. THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF 82 DEGS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS FAR FROM THE RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1910. HOWEVER...THE HIGH OF 82 DEGS WAS 11 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SPREADING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA...SONORA AND A LARGE PART OF ARIZONA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...SO INHERITED FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS STILL GOOD. SO FAR TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .FIRE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GENERATED SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS SAW SUSTAINED 20 FT WIND VALUES GREATER THAN 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THE DOUGLAS ASOS AND HORSE CAMP CANYON RAWS STATION WERE TWO SITES THAT MET RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES BOTTOMED OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER TEENS IN THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS. NOT QUITE AS GUSTY THURSDAY...BUT EVEN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY... AND COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS THEN. && .AVIATION...FETCH OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY ABOVE 15KFT AGL...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AS THEY WERE TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH CLOUD THICKENING THIS AFTERNOON... MIXING HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED A BIT AND WINDS ARE DOWN A FEW KTS... STILL SOLIDLY BREEZY. OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER MILD WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN A FEW SPOTS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THICK PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WELL WITH THE STUBBORN RIDGE SLOWLY GIVING WAY AND CORRESPONDING HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES SAGGING A BIT. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WON`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY FOR OUR LATITUDE WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY SHEARING THROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE LAGGING PORTION FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BEING DRAWN THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. THE KICKER SYSTEM FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE NORTH ON AN INLAND TRAJECTORY SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY SKIP THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA AS IT KICKS EASTWARD LATE SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA (WITH BEST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST COOLING SATURDAY)...BUT THE PRECIP COVERAGE IS LOOKING LOWER AND QPF POTENTIAL STILL RATHER MEAGER. ANOTHER INSIDE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE REDEVELOPING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BY THEN...EXPECT ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW WITH WINDS AGAIN THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
MOLLERE WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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