Title: Comparing the STEMS and AFIS growth models with respect to the uncertainty of predictions

Author: McRoberts, Ronald E.; Holdaway, Margaret R.; Lessard, Veronica C.

Year: 2000

Publication: In: Hansen, Mark; Burk, Tom, eds. Integrated tools for natural resources inventories in the 21st century. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-212. St. Paul, MN: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station. 539-548.

Abstract: The uncertainty in 5-, 10-, and 20-year diameter growth predictions is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations for four Lake States tree species. Two sets of diameter growth models are used: recalibrations of the STEMS models using forest inventory and analysis data, and new growth models developed as a component of an annual forest inventory system for the North Central region of the United States. Particular attention is focused on the effects that uncertainty in the values of predictor variables has on the uncertainty of model predictions. The cumulative effects of uncertainty in model predictions for individual trees on the uncertainty of basal area predictions at the plot and regional levels are also investigated.