Land Use / Land Cover Change
USGCRP Recent Accomplishments

Land Use / Land Cover Change

Overview

Recent Accomplishments

Near-Term Plans

Archived News Postings (June 2000 - July 2005)

Related Sites

Calls for Proposals

For long term plans, see chapter on Land Use / Land Cover Change of the draft Strategic Plan posted on web site of US Climate Change Science Program

Additional Past Accomplishments:

Fiscal Year 2007

Fiscal Year 2006

Fiscal Year 2004-5

Fiscal Year 2003

Fiscal Year 2002

The following are selected highlights of recent research supported by CCSP participating agencies (as reported in the fiscal year 2009 edition of the annual report, Our Changing Planet).

A Basin-Scale Econometric Model for Projecting Future Amazonian Landscapes.1,2 A team of U.S. and Brazilian researchers collaborated in a study predicting the intensity of deforestation of the Amazon Basin resulting from four different economic development scenarios. Projections were generated from results of econometric modeling based on economic theory and detailed local observation. The projections considered scenarios defined by three factors, including trends in population growth (expected and low rates), the nature of anticipated infrastructure investments (Avança Brasil and successor projects, or not), and efforts at governance (unofficial road building), reflected by the depth of control over forest conservation in protected areas and on private holdings. The study considered potential variations among these three factors to predict the relative percentage of closed forest cleared by 2020. For the scenarios chosen, the resulting projected percentage deforestation (in parentheses) are as follows:

• Expected population growth/Avança Brasil investments/no governance (31%)
• Expected population growth/Avança Brasil investments/medium governance (19%)
• Expected population growth/no Avança Brasil investments/medium governance (19%)
• Low population growth/no Avança Brasil investments/complete governance (16%).

North American Vegetation Dynamics Observed with Multi-Resolution Satellite Data.3 Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from Advanced Very High- Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments were used from 1982 to 2005 to identify regions in North America that experienced increases in annual photosynthetic capacity from 1982 to 2005. The identified regions were next investigated with Landsat imagery, Ikonos data, aerial photography, and ancillary data to determine the cause of the increase in photosynthesis. Not surprisingly, a range of causes for the NDVI increases were found: increased precipitation; warmer spring conditions; severe drought and subsequent recovery; expansion of irrigated agriculture; logging and subsequent regeneration; and forest fires with subsequent regeneration. Higher latitude areas were affected solely by the climatic influences of warmer temperatures. In other areas, however, land-use and land-cover changes were responsible for the changes in photosynthesis observed. In the Southern Great Plains, a semi-arid region, a massive expansion of center-pivot irrigated agriculture occurred that was responsible for the regional changes observed (see Figures 10 and 11). Large-scale logging, referred to as “progressive clear cuts,” was found to be responsible for significant changes in photosynthesis in the province of Quebec. The logged areas first experienced a decrease in photosynthesis immediately following clearing, followed by a gradual recovery of photosynthesis over the next 10 to 15 years.

Figure 10: NDVI Changes Associated with Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. Areas of marked changes in NDVI and thus net primary production associated with warmer surface temperatures, increased precipitation, and/or land-use and land-cover changes from 1982 to 2005 (left) and 1982 to 1991 (right) using data with an 8 by 8-km resolution from the noted time periods. In the right figure, the increased NDVI values observed from 1982 to 1991 were due to the following: area 2 experienced warmer temperatures and a longer growing season, coupled with recovery from forest fires and logging in affected areas (the red colors); and area 5 shows the results of large-scale logging. In the left figure, NDVI increases were due to the following: area 1 experienced warmer temperatures and a longer growing season; area 3 experienced warmer temperatures and increased precipitation; and area 4 experienced widespread land-use changes, where dry land farming was replaced by center-pivot irrigation. See Figure 11 for an explanation of the land-use changes that can be observed using coarse-resolution satellite data in area 4. Credit: C.S.R. Neigh, C.J. Tucker and J.R.G. Townshend, NASA / Goddard Space Flight Center and University of Maryland (reproduced from Remote Sensing of Environment with permission from Elsevier).

Figure 11: Irrigated Agriculture in the Southern Great Plains. Landsat data show the cause of anomalies in the previous figure between 1982 and 2005 for area 4 near Dalhart, Texas. The red areas show increased green vegetation density due to an expansion of irrigated agriculture in the Southern Great Plains. Credit: C.S.R. Neigh, C.J. Tucker, and J.R.G. Townshend, NASA / Goddard Space Flight Center and University of Maryland (reproduced from Remote Sensing of Environment with permission from Elsevier).

This work shows the value of using different types of satellite data to study climate and land-use and land-cover change. Coarse-resolution time series “survey” data are used to identify areas where variations in photosynthesis have occurred, then Landsat and climate data are used to understand possible land-use changes and/or climatic variation in the specific “survey” areas identified.

Identifying Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Central America.4,5,6 Seasonal tropical forests of the southern Yucatan Peninsula form the largest expanse of this ecosystem type remaining in Mexico. It forms an ecocline between a drier region to the north and humid forest to the south in Guatemala. Increasing population and intensification of agriculture since the 1960s has raised international concerns about the effects of these land-use changes on this large carbon and biodiversity reservoir. This led to the creation of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve to preserve this unique forested area. The Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region Project is currently engaged in an assessment of the vulnerability/resilience of the coupled human-environment system in the face of multiple and highly dynamic land-use changes underway in the region. It addresses the consequences to ecosystem services, forest structure, and land surface temperatures and fire potential in the face of increasing settlement and expansion and intensification of agriculture throughout the region. The project employs Landsat, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), and AVHRR satellite imagery, ecological information, and socioeconomic studies. Recent biodiversity studies have found that the current landscape matrix maintains the biotic diversity of the reserve but this is threatened by the loss of humid forests to the south and the interruption of biotic flow across the ecocline due to habitat fragmentation. Current land uses also threaten overall biomass productivity due to declining nutrient conservation.

Map of Russian Forest Biomass.7 Scientists at the Woods Hole Research Center and Oregon State University have collaborated with Russian scientists to produce two maps of forest biomass for Russia. Both maps were based on a regression-tree analytical approach that determined the relationship between ground data collected at 12 sites across Russia and satellite data for all the forests of Russian as part of a forest inventory study in 2000. The total Russian forest biomass estimates ranged from 46 to 67 Gt dry matter. This is important initial work to determine carbon stocks in Russian boreal forests.

North American Native Tallgrass Prairie: High Carbon Storage, Rapid Loss from Cultivation, Slow Increase from Restoration.8,9 Tallgrass prairie is the most extensive grassland type in North America, ranging from Texas to Minnesota and north into Canada, but over 95% of the original prairie has been converted to agricultural row crops. There is increasing interest in restoring these grassland systems for conservation, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and other conservation goals. A recent study sampling native prairie, converted prairie in row crops, and restored prairie showed that the largest pools of soil organic carbon in the United States are in prairie grass that survived from earlier times and that, on average, cultivation reduced soil carbon by nearly 30%. However, the carbon content of many restored prairies still did not approach that of native prairie after as long as 60 years, and only at the Texas site did restoration result in significantly higher soil carbon. The effects of land-use change were highly site-specific such that the effects of land use on carbon storage in this region defy any broad generalizations.

Mangrove Forest Losses in Tsunami-Affected Area of Asia.10 It is estimated that mangrove forests, including associated soils, can sequester approximately 1.5 metric tons of carbon per hectare each year, while disturbance or destruction of these forests can lead to the release of much of this carbon as the greenhouse gases CO2 or CH4. Time-series Landsat data from 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2005 were used to identify the present distribution, rate of change, and major causes of change in the tsunami-affected countries of South and Southeast Asia. The analyses for the first time show that (1) the region lost 12% of its mangrove forests from 1975 to 2005 (their present extent is about 1,670,000 ha); (2) annual deforestation during the same period was highest in Burma (~1%) and lowest in Sri Lanka (0.1%); and (3) net deforestation peaked at 137,000 ha during 1990 to 2000, increasing from 97,000 ha during 1975 to 1990, and declining to 14,000 ha during 2000 to 2005. The major causes of deforestation in the region were agricultural expansion (81%), aquaculture (12%), and urban development (2%), but there are major differences between countries. For example, in Burma, illegal logging and fuel wood collection coupled with degradation due to erosion and sedimentation are major factors, while urban development is a dominant factor in Malaysia and aquaculture is the most important cause in Indonesia. Information generated from this study can be used to identify potential rehabilitation sites and priority conservation areas.

Additional Past Accomplishments:

• Fiscal Year 2007
• Fiscal Year 2006
• Fiscal Year 2004-2005
• Fiscal Year 2003
• Fiscal Year 2002

LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER CHANGE CHAPTER REFERENCES

1)  Perz, S.G., C. Overdevest, M.M. Caldas, R.T. Walker, and E.Y. Arima, 2007: Unofficial road building in the Brazilian Amazon: Dilemmas and models for road governance. Environmental Conservation, 34(2), 112-121, doi:10.1017/S0376892907003827.

2)  Caldas, M., R.T. Walker, S. Perz, E. Arima, S. Aldrich, and C. Simmons, 2007: Theorizing land cover and land use change: The peasant economy of colonization in the Amazon Basin. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 97(1), 86-110.

3)  Neigh, C.S.R., C.J. Tucker, and J.R.G. Townshend, 2008: North American vegetation dynamics observed with multi-resolution satellite data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 112, 1749-1772.

4)  Vester, H.F., D. Lawrence, J.R. Eastman, B.L. Turner II, S. Calme, R. Dickson, C. Pozo, and F. Sangermano, 2007: Land Change in the southern Yucatan and Calamul biosphere reserve: Effects on habitat and biodiversity. Ecological Applications, 17, 989-1003.

5)  Lawrence, D., P. D’Odorico, L. Diekmann, M. DeLonge, R. Das, and J. Eaton, 2007: Ecological feedbacks following deforestation create the potential for a catastrophic ecosystem shift in tropical dry forest. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 20696-20701.

6)  Manson, S.M. and T. Evans, 2007: Land change science special feature: Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatán, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 20678-20683.

7)  Houghton, R.A., D. Butman, A. Bunn, O.N. Krankina, P. Schlesinger, and T.A. Stone, 2007: Mapping Russian forest biomass with satellites and forest inventories. Environmental Research Letters, 2(4), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045032.

8)  McCulley, R.L., N. Fierer, and R.B. Jackson, 2007: Restoration of grasslands after agriculture: Insights from regional chronosequences. Abstracts of the Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting, 5-10 Aug 2007, San Jose, California. Available at <eco.confex.com/eco/2007/techprogram/ P1427.HTM>.

9)  McCulley, R.L., T.W. Boutton, and S.R. Archer, 2007: Soil respiration in a subtropical savanna parkland: Response to water additions. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 71, 820-828.

10)  Giri, C., Z. Zhu, L.L. Tieszen, A. Singh, S. Gillette, and J.A. Kelmelis, 2008: Mangrove forest distribution and dynamics (1975-2005) of the tsunami-affected region of Asia. Journal of Biogeography, 35(3), 519–528.