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Frontiers in Science Public Lecture Series
A History of Predicting the Future:
Earth, Wind, Fire and Computers
Andrew B. White
Computer and Computational Science Division
The quest to accurately predict the course of future events is driven
by the desire to make good decisions, from wearing appropriate clothes
for the weather to evacuating people from danger. This talk will examine
our interest and confidence in, and ability (or lack thereof) to predict
the future. We will concentrate on the last hundred years or so, emphasizing
the period following the invention of electronic computers.
We will first examine the question of how and how well computers can predict
the weather. For some things, we have a long way to go, but for others we have
achieved “perfection.” Long-range weather prediction is generally
considered impossible, yet there are some ways to beat these odds. Similarly,
long-range prediction of wildfire behavior is a difficult task. Nearly ten
years ago, the Crisis Forecasting Project began with a goal to develop faster-than-real-time
methods for predicting the course of a wildfire. We will discuss the interplay
between weather and fire and the state-of-the-art in wildfire prediction.
Lastly, we will look at the fundamental changes in computers that have, at
least in part, enabled the advances discussed above. We will emphasize both
technological progress and the role of the marketplace. The next “best” computers
may originate from a surprising source and their predecessors might be in your
home today.
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