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Subject: G15) I'm vacationing in the Caribbean/the Bahamas/
Central America/Miami or elsewhere in the tropics during hurricane
season. What's my chance of getting hit by a hurricane?"
Contributed by Chris Landsea
Typically, for someone visiting the tropics during June
through November, the chance to experience (or even be threatened by)
a hurricane is very small.
![](h_prob_sept.gif)
As an example, this figure shows the chances to have a direct hit
by a hurricane during the month of September, which is usually the
busiest month. If we look at Puerto Rico, the chance is 8% of
experiencing a hurricane, if you are there for the WHOLE month.
If you are there for, say, only a week, then the chance would be
one fourth of that - or only about 2% chance.
To put this into perspective, if you made 50 one week trips to Puerto
Rico in September, you would only experience a direct hit in ONE
of those 50 visits. So the chances to get impacted by a hurricane
are quite small for relatively short trips. (And the case chosen here
is the WORST possible, as all other locations in all other months have
smaller chances of being hit by a hurricane.) If you would like to
see chances of hurricane strikes in other months, see
Question G12.
Despite the chance being small, one should know in advance what
your hotel's, cruise company's, etc. policy is for guests when a
hurricane is coming, what actions they plan and what refund policies
they have (if any). As is described above, a direct hit by a
hurricane is a very rare event for a short visit and if I had a
chance - for example - to go on a cruise in the Caribbean Sea during
hurricane season, I would go without hesitation.
Last updated August 13, 2004
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