Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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000 AXUS74 KFWD 120540 DGTFWD TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161- 181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333- 337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-080000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2009 ...FIRE SEASON IN FULL SWING AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST... -------------------------------------------------------------------- SYNOPSIS... PRECIPITATION DEFICITS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GROWING OVER THE PAST 16 MONTHS...WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS SINCE OCTOBER. MODERATE (D1) AND SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONTINUE ALONG THE RED RIVER...WHILE SEVERE (D2) AND EVEN EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) REMAIN IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE SOME DROUGHT DESIGNATION...MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY DENOTED AS ABNORMALLY DRY (D0). AGRICULTURAL LOSSES CONTINUE TO MOUNT WITH A DISMAL START TO THE WINTER GROWING SEASON. IN ADDITION...THE QUICKLY RE-EMERGING DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN THE FIRE SEASON OFF TO A BLAZING START...WITH FREQUENT COLD FRONTS MAINTAINING LOW HUMIDITY AND PERSISTENT WIND. WITH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS NOT FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TOTALS...IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TO ERASE THE MASSIVE DEFICITS COMPILED DURING MORE THAN A YEAR OF INADEQUATE RAINFALL. THUS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OR WORSEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER. -------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE...TOTAL CROP LOSSES FOR 2008 WERE 1.1 BILLION DOLLARS. AN ADDITIONAL 290 MILLION DOLLARS COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY...FOR A TOTAL OF NEARLY 1.4 BILLION DOLLARS FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AS A WHOLE. THERE APPEARS NO END TO MOUNTING LOSSES AS THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN RECENT MONTHS HAS STRESSED NEARLY EVERY COLD SEASON CROP ACROSS THE STATE. NEARLY ONE HALF OF ALL WINTER WHEAT WAS IN POOR OR VERY POOR CONDITION. OATS ARE IN EVEN WORSE SHAPE...WITH NEARLY 3/4 RATED POOR OR VERY POOR. NEARLY ONE FIFTH OF RECENTLY PLANTED OATS FAILED TO EMERGE AT ALL. THERE ARE ALREADY NUMEROUS CONCERNS FOR THE COMING WARM SEASON. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SO DRY IN THE BLACKLANDS OF CENTRAL TEXAS THAT TYPICAL NITROGEN-BASED FERTILIZERS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE VIABLE FOR THE STAPLE CORN CROP. WHEN 2009 BEGAN...NEARLY 2/3 OF TEXAS GRAZING LAND WAS IN POOR OR VERY POOR CONDITION. HOWEVER...MANY NORTH TEXAS PASTURES ARE IN FAIR OR EVEN GOOD CONDITION...OWING TO LATE SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND THE RESULTING GROWTH. RYE GRASS REMAINS ADEQUATE THOUGH MANY CATTLE PRODUCERS ARE NEEDING LARGE AMOUNTS OF HAY. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING BEGAN EARLY IN THE COLD SEASON...THOUGH SOME AREAS HAVE HAD A HAY SURPLUS THANKS TO THE BENEFICIAL RAINS LATE IN THE WARM SEASON. FIRE DANGER THE TEXAS LEGISLATURE APPROVED 5.7 MILLION DOLLARS IN REIMBURSEMENT FUNDS TO BE DISTRIBUTED BY THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE TO LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENTS ACROSS THE STATE. THE MONIES ARE INTENDED TO OFFSET COSTS INCURRED DURING THE MEMORABLE 2005-2006 FIRE SEASON. THIS IS WELCOME NEWS FOR MANY LOCAL JURISDICTIONS WHO ARE COPING WITH THE THIRD TROUBLESOME FIRE SEASON IN THE LAST FOUR WINTERS. NEARLY ALL VEGETATION IS DORMANT FOR THE WINTER...AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL PROVIDE ONLY TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM FIRE DANGER...AS LOW HUMIDITY AND SEASONALLY GUSTY WINDS QUICKLY RE-CURE ABUNDANT FINE FUEL. FEW ADDITIONAL BURN BANS HAVE BEEN ENACTED DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS...BUT HALF OF THE COUNTIES IN THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY CURRENTLY HAVE FORMAL BANS IN PLACE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- CLIMATE SUMMARY... FOR NEARLY ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL THE PAST 16 MONTHS. IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...ANNUAL DEFICITS FOR 2008 EXCEEDED 20 INCHES. THE DEFICITS HAVE INCREASED FURTHER AS OF LATE...WITH MOST OF NORTH TEXAS SEEING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL VALUES THE PAST 3 MONTHS. FROM DUBLIN (ERATH COUNTY)...TO COMANCHE...TO NEAR GOLDTHWAITE...3-MONTH TOTALS ARE UNDER 1/2 INCH. WHILE BENEFICIAL...THE PRECIPITATION EVENT OF JANUARY 5-6 WAS LARGELY INSUFFICIENT TO EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. TOTALS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT IN AREAS WEST OF I-35. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 SAW EVENT TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...MONTH-TO-DATE TOTALS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN MANY OF THOSE AREAS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS NEEDED TO PREVENT ANOTHER MONTH WITH WIDESPREAD DEFICITS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... WITH FREQUENT POLAR AND ARCTIC INTRUSIONS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. AS A RESULT...EXPANSION OF MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION... LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER LOOK TO PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF. THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THE NEXT FEW MONTHS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS LIKELY TO WORSEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT. ALTHOUGH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO ENSO COLD PHASE. REGARDLESS...NEITHER ENSO-NEUTRAL NOR LA NINA PORTEND A LIKELIHOOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. WITH WINTER A CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR PRECIPITATION...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... DESPITE 16 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...MOST NORTH TEXAS RESERVOIRS REMAIN ABOVE 80 PERCENT CAPACITY. HOWEVER... THERE HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLE DECLINES SINCE THE SUMMER MONTHS. IN SPITE OF THE TRANSITION TO THE COLD SEASON...AND THE REDUCED USAGE AND EVAPORATION THAT COMES WITH IT...SPORADIC RAIN EVENTS HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH LOSSES. A HANDFUL OF AREA LAKES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 70 PERCENT CONSERVATION...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH IS LAKE WHITNEY AT ONLY 21 PERCENT. RESERVOIR DATA - JANUARY 11, 2009 NORMAL POOL CURRENT PERCENT OF POOL HEIGHT DEFICIT CONSERVATION RED RIVER BASIN LAKE TEXOMA 616.6 616.48 -0.12 100 PAY MAYSE LAKE 451.0 449.02 -1.98 90 JIM CHAPMAN LAKE 440.0 433.70 -9.30 61 TRINITY RIVER BASIN LAKE BRIDGEPORT 836.0 828.07 -7.93 75 EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE 649.0 644.35 -4.65 79 LAKE WORTH 594.0 592.33 -1.67 85 LAKE BENBROOK 694.0 686.62 -7.38 66 LAKE RAY ROBERTS 632.5 630.01 -2.49 91 LAKE LEWISVILLE 522.0 518.00 -4.00 82 LAKE GRAPEVINE 535.0 527.69 -7.31 70 LAKE LAVON 492.0 487.71 -4.29 81 LAKE RAY HUBBARD 435.5 434.05 -1.45 93 JOE POOL LAKE 522.0 519.57 -2.43 88 BARDWELL LAKE 421.0 417.94 -3.06 80 NAVARRO MILLS LAKE 424.5 421.57 -2.93 75 CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR 322.0 319.67 -2.33 89 RICHLAND CHAMBERS 315.0 310.44 -4.56 83 BRAZOS RIVER BASIN POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE 1000.0 997.49 -2.51 90 PROCTOR LAKE 1162.0 1157.31 -4.69 62 BELTON LAKE 594.0 591.29 -2.71 92 STILLHOUSE HOLLOW 622.0 617.14 -4.86 87 LAKE GRANBURY 693.0 690.63 -2.37 87 LAKE WHITNEY 533.0 523.29 -9.71 21 AQUILLA LAKE 537.5 533.65 -3.85 65 WACO LAKE 462.0 459.21 -2.79 88 LAKE LIMESTONE 363.0 360.55 -2.45 84 IN GENERAL...WATER SUPPLIES ARE STILL ADEQUATE TO HANDLE DEMAND... THUS THE DROUGHT REMAINS PRIMARILY ONE OF AGRICULTURAL IMPACT. SOME LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES HAVE ENACTED STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS...BUT MOST JURISDICTIONS HAVE MAINTAINED CALLS FOR VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION WITHOUT FORMAL RESTRICTIONS. EVEN IF WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR YOUR AREA...RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO BE SENSIBLE ABOUT WATER USAGE. AVOID WATERING BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM... WHEN EVAPORATION LIMITS ITS EFFECTIVENESS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... AN UPDATED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY FEBRUARY. -------------------------------------------------------------------- && -------------------------------------------------------------------- RELATED WEB SITES... NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/DROUGHT.HTML NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU -------------------------------------------------------------------- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS. THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN ONE CLEARING HOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES... HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES. A SUMMARY OF THE SUBMITTED IMPACTS IS INCLUDED IN EACH DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND THE TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE PROVIDE ROUTINE ASSESSMENTS OF CROP AND PASTURE CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL AGRICULTURE STATISTICS SERVICE (NASS)...PART OF THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA). THE PERIODIC STATEWIDE SUMMARIES THAT RESULT ARE USED AS A PRIMARY SOURCE FOR THE AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS SECTION. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE (TFS) CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS. OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP). -------------------------------------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD. FORT WORTH, TX 76137 PHONE: (817) 429-2631 E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV -------------------------------------------------------------------- $$ HUCKABY/25