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000 FXUS63 KICT 150347 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 947 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009 .UPDATE... DRY AND BITTER COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO KANSAS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. WE DROPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE SPREADING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL PROFILER NETWORK AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER JET DYNAMICS NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WAS INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-295K LAYER OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND RESULTANT LIGHT SNOW. THIS AREA OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST FOLKS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD WITNESS A DUSTING OR LIGHT COATING OF SNOW...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH OF FLUFFY POWDER-TYPE SNOW. MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A RUSSELL TO HUTCHINSON...TO WICHITA LINE. JAKUB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/ UPDATE... AREA OF LIFT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WITH REPORTS OF A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS KINGMAN...HARPER...AND SUMNER COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA VIA ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-295K LAYER FROM UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE FLUFFY POWDER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL INVESTIGATE 00Z MODELS FOR ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING. JAKUB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MOST TAF SITES WILL WITNESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. JAKUB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES...CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE ARCTIC CHILL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH THE RELATIVELY MOIST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FORCING AND SNOW ACCUMS BUT SUGGEST CHANCES ARE BEST GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM RUSSELL TO WINFIELD. FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A TRACE TO ONE-HALF INCH ALONG THIS LINE...INCLUDING GREATER WICHITA INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY...AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES FURTHER WEST FROM BARTON COUNTY SOUTH INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF RENO...KINGMAN AND HARPER COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE COLD AND LOW WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PLAN TO DEVIATE LITTLE FROM THE GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE HARDER TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR FURTHER EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN LONGWAVE TROF WILL PUT EASTERN KANSAS IN PRECARIOUS POSITION FOR PERIODIC SHALLOW COOL AIR INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MILDER READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN A WARMER REGIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROF MOVES EAST AND RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. DARMOFAL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 11 20 9 39 / 40 40 10 10 HUTCHINSON 9 19 9 41 / 50 40 10 10 NEWTON 7 19 8 38 / 30 30 10 10 ELDORADO 8 20 8 38 / 30 30 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 11 21 9 40 / 30 40 10 10 RUSSELL 8 17 10 45 / 60 40 20 10 GREAT BEND 10 17 10 45 / 60 50 20 10 SALINA 6 19 8 41 / 30 30 20 10 MCPHERSON 7 19 8 40 / 40 30 20 10 COFFEYVILLE 10 22 7 38 / 10 20 10 10 CHANUTE 7 20 6 36 / 10 10 10 10 IOLA 5 20 6 36 / 10 10 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 9 21 7 38 / 10 10 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
