Hurricane OMAR

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HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS
BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES
ON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA
OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT.
IN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN.  IT SHOULD
ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A
60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5.  THERE HAS
BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN.  THE HWRF AND
GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL
SPREAD IS NOT LARGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 14.3N  68.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N  67.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.7N  65.4W    85 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.3W    90 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.9N  61.1W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 27.0N  58.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 33.0N  54.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 41.0N  44.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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