Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.4 Percent
in July from June
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BTS 41-07
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, September
12, 2007 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.4 percent
in July from its June level, falling for the second consecutive month to its
lowest level since February, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of
Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The
July decline was the third decrease in the freight index in four months (Table
2). At 108.5, the freight TSI is down 4.1
percent from its peak of 113.1 achieved in November 2005 and up 0.2 percent
from its recent low of 108.3 in November 2006.
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
For the first seven
months of 2007, the freight TSI was down 0.3 percent. It was the third decline in
the past five years for the freight TSI during the first seven months of the
year (Table 3).
The
July freight TSI of 108.5 was down 2.9 percent from its July 2006 level, the
first July-to-July decrease since July 2001 and the largest decline since a 3.2
percent drop from July 1999 to July 2000 (Table 4). For additional historical
data prior to 2004, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The
July index is at its lowest July level since July 2003, 2.0 percent lower than
the July 2005 level and 1.5 percent lower than the July 2004 level. Despite the recent declines, the freight
index has increased 5.4 percent in five years and 14.5 percent in 10 years
(Table 5).
The TSI is an index of the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by for-hire
transportation industries. It includes
historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under
development and is considered experimental. The seasonally adjusted index
measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the August index is scheduled for Oct.
10.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers rose 0.1
percent in July from its June level, rising after a one-month decline (Table 6). The Passenger TSI July 2007 level of 114.8
was 2.8 percent higher than the July 2006 level, the fifth consecutive annual increase
(Table 7). For the first seven months of 2007, the passenger TSI rose 0.6
percent, the fourth consecutive year in which the index has increased during
the first seven months but the rate of growth has declined each year (Table 3). The passenger index is up 22.0 percent in
five years and 30.5 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month
changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger transportation
industries. The seasonally adjusted index
consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger TSI
fell 0.2 percent in July from its June level, the second consecutive monthly
decline (Table 8). The combined TSI July 2007 level of 109.7 was 1.6 percent lower
than the July 2006 level (Table 9). For
the first seven months of 2007, the combined TSI fell 0.1 percent, the first
decline in the December-to-July period since 2003 (Table 3). The combined index
is up 9.4 percent in five years and 18.6 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
More on TSI
Note: TSI numbers for March (Freight, Passenger and Combined)
were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component
transportation services. The March Freight TSI is 109.8, revised from the 109.7
reported in the August release. The March Passenger TSI is 114.2, revised from 114.6.
The March Combined TSI is 110.5, revised from 110.6. The TSI for April, May,
June and July are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI
is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered
preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and
replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information
about the monthly revision policy, the 2007 comprehensive revision conducted
with the July release and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Since January 2007
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
January |
108.5 |
-0.3 |
114.0 |
-0.1 |
109.5 |
-0.3 |
February |
108.5 |
0.0 |
111.7 |
-2.0 |
109.0 |
-0.5 |
MarchR |
109.8 |
1.1 |
114.2 |
2.2 |
110.5 |
1.4 |
AprilP |
109.6 |
-0.2 |
115.4 |
1.0 |
110.7 |
0.1 |
MayP |
109.7 |
0.1 |
115.5 |
0.2 |
110.8 |
0.1 |
JuneP |
108.9 |
-0.7 |
114.7 |
-0.7 |
110.0 |
-0.7 |
JulyP |
108.5 |
-0.4 |
114.8 |
0.1 |
109.7 |
-0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Note: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.5 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
February |
3.0 |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
March |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
(R) 1.1 |
April |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
(P) -0.2 |
May |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
2.4 |
(P) 0.1 |
June |
0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
(P) -0.7 |
July |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
(P) -0.4 |
August |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
|
September |
0.2 |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
|
October |
0.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
|
November |
1.2 |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
|
December |
-0.4 |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to Date Change, 1998-2007
Percent change from December of previous year
December to July
Excel | CSV
1998 |
4.5 |
-0.3 |
3.0 |
1999 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2000 |
-6.0 |
5.4 |
-2.6 |
2001 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2002 |
5.9 |
3.1 |
5.1 |
2003 |
-0.6 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
2004 |
2.0 |
3.9 |
2.5 |
2005 |
-0.3 |
2.8 |
0.5 |
2006 |
0.4 |
2.7 |
1.0 |
2007P |
-0.3 |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the July Freight
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
101.1 |
6.8 |
1999 |
102.0 |
0.8 |
2000 |
98.7 |
-3.2 |
2001 |
98.4 |
-0.3 |
2002 |
103.0 |
4.7 |
2003 |
104.0 |
1.0 |
2004 |
110.2 |
5.9 |
2005 |
110.7 |
0.5 |
2006 |
111.7 |
0.9 |
2007P |
108.5 |
-2.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary
Note: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2007
(July to July)
Excel | CSV
2006 |
1 |
-2.9 |
2.8 |
-1.6 |
2005 |
2 |
-2.0 |
5.0 |
-0.3 |
2004 |
3 |
-1.5 |
10.1 |
1.2 |
2003 |
4 |
4.3 |
18.2 |
7.6 |
2002 |
5 |
5.4 |
22.0 |
9.4 |
2001 |
6 |
10.3 |
13.2 |
10.4 |
2000 |
7 |
9.9 |
14.4 |
10.5 |
1999 |
8 |
6.4 |
20.0 |
9.8 |
1998 |
9 |
7.3 |
28.1 |
12.6 |
1997 |
10 |
14.5 |
30.5 |
18.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
Note: The percent changes to July 2007 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.2 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
February |
1.8 |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
March |
1.1 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
(R) 2.2 |
April |
0.7 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
(P) 1.0 |
May |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
(P) 0.2 |
June |
1.6 |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
(P) -0.7 |
July |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
(P) 0.1 |
August |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
September |
-0.2 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
|
October |
2.2 |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
|
November |
-0.9 |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
|
December |
-0.1 |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the July Passenger
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
89.6 |
1.9 |
1999 |
95.7 |
6.8 |
2000 |
100.4 |
4.9 |
2001 |
101.4 |
1.0 |
2002 |
94.1 |
-7.2 |
2003 |
97.2 |
3.2 |
2004 |
104.3 |
7.3 |
2005 |
109.3 |
4.8 |
2006 |
111.7 |
2.2 |
2007P |
114.8 |
2.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary
Note: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.4 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
February |
2.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
March |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
(R) 1.4 |
April |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
(P) 0.1 |
May |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
(P) 0.1 |
June |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
(P) -0.7 |
July |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
(P) -0.2 |
August |
-0.1 |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
|
September |
0.1 |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
|
October |
0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
|
November |
0.6 |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
|
December |
-0.3 |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the July TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
97.4 |
5.3 |
1999 |
99.9 |
2.6 |
2000 |
99.2 |
-0.7 |
2001 |
99.3 |
0.1 |
2002 |
100.3 |
1.0 |
2003 |
101.9 |
1.6 |
2004 |
108.4 |
6.3 |
2005 |
110.1 |
1.6 |
2006 |
111.4 |
1.2 |
2007P |
109.7 |
-1.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary
Note: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The
TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is
being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and
interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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