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National Situation Update: Monday, October 1, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Juilett
As of 5:00 am EDT, October 1, 2007, the center of this system was located about 350 miles west-southwest of Baja, CA.

Present movement is toward the north-northwest at 10 mph.

Maximum sustained winds are 52 mph, with gusts to 63 mph.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,001 mb.

Tropical Storm Juliette has been moving between a low-to-mid-level-ridge over Mexico, and a mid-level trough to its West.  As the cyclone spins down, it should decelerate in the weak lower-level flow west of the Baja, California peninsula. The official forecast remains along the left side of the track guidance envelope, and comes essentially to a halt after 36 hours around the time of dissipation. If the cyclone succumbs to the shear earlier than expected, and this process may already be beginning, then the stall would occur earlier.

This system poses no threat to the United States.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
Nothing significant to report.

Western Pacific:
Nothing significant to report.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)