Releases : Social Science

DENTON (UNT), Texas --  Three years ago tomorrow (Friday, Aug. 29) Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.  The massive hurricane was responsible for 1,323 deaths and $250 billion in economic loss.  Three years later, the area is slowly returning to its pre-Katrina vigor, but the threat of another storm has continued to haunt the area.

Tropical Storm Gustav passed over Haiti late Tuesday, and is now expected to make its way further in to the Gulf of Mexico.  The storm is expected to strengthen in the open waters and make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast early next week.  It is too early for meteorologists to determine a precise landfall location, but preliminary models suggest that the storm may make landfall along the coast of Louisiana.   

The experts listed are available to discuss the Gulf Coast's recovery from Hurricane Katrina, as well as the potential impact of a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, like Gustav is expected to become, hitting the Katrina devastated Gulf Coast.

Long-term recovery of communities from hurricanes, response to hurricane warnings, mobile home residents and hurricanes:

Dr. Nicole Dash, UNT associate professor of sociology, says the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other hurricanes shows why those who will be most vulnerable if threatened by a hurricane -- the elderly and the poor -- need to know what resources will be available from the local government.

"We have yet to find out whether the public and governmental agencies have learned the lessons of hurricanes Katrina and Rita," she says.

Dash has analyzed property tax data and census data for Miami-Dade County from 1990 to 2000 to study the recovery of communities impacted by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. She is a Florida native who was a graduate student at Florida International University in Miami when Hurricane Andrew hit. She discovered that areas with large minority populations recovered slower than areas with predominantly Caucasian populations, and African-American areas fared far worse than Hispanic areas, which were predominantly Cuban. She has published a book chapter of some of her findings in "Hurricane Andrew: Ethnicity, Gender and the Sociology of Disasters," published by FIU's Laboratory for Social and Behavioral Research.

Dash has also done extensive research on the aftermath of Katrina.  She was the featured guest on a 2006 on KERA-FM program in Dallas that recognized the first anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

• Office phone:  940-565-2230
• E-mail: drnicoledash@gmail.com

This is the best way to reach Dr. Dash over the holiday weekend.  Her e-mail messages are forwarded to her phone, so if you send her your contact information she will respond as soon as possible.

FEMA, emergency management and recovery efforts:

Mr. Eliot Jennings is an instructor in the Emergency Administration and Planning degree program, which is part of UNT's nationally recognized Department of Public Administration.  He was previously the operations and planning coordinator for Galveston County's Office of Emergency Management for four years.  He also served as the emergency management coordinator for the City of Galveston and later for Galveston County.  Jennings was involved in preparing for and responding to five federal disaster declarations during his time in Galveston. He teaches introductory emergency management classes as well as response and recovery courses.  He can discuss the steps that the Gulf Coast should take to prepare for a storm, as well as the appropriate recovery and response steps. 

• Office phone:  940-369-7844
• Cell phone:  940-395-7167
• E-mail:  Jennings@unt.edu

Impact of Katrina and Rita on the Gulf Coast, potential economic impact of Gustav hitting the Gulf Coast:

Dr. Bernard Weinstein, director of UNT's Center for Economic Development and Research, can discuss the economic recovery of New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina, as well as the potential economic impact of Hurricane Gustav hitting the Gulf Coast.  Weinstein delivered a presentation titled "The Economic Aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: An Assessment After One Year" to the Dallas Association for Business Economics in November 2006.  In the presentation, Weinstein said that Katrina caused $250 billion in total economic loss.  Weinstein can discuss the impact of Katrina, and the potential impact of Gustav, on agriculture, energy, hospitality, shipping and logistics and small businesses. 

• Office phone number: 940-565-4049
• Cell phone number 214-707-1834
• E-mail address:  Bernard.weinstein@unt.edu

Today (Aug. 8), the United States called for an immediate cease-fire between Russia and the Republic of Georgia in the clash over the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia. Russia has reportedly launched a major military offensive in South Ossetia in response to Georgian troops attempting to crush the separatist forces, and a member of Georgia's National Security Council has said that the two countries are very close to war.

President Bush and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin reportedly were discussing the Georgia crisis after attending the opening of the Summer Olympics in Beijing.

As you continue your coverage of this breaking news story, consider these University of North Texas experts who can discuss a variety of topics related to the story.

Dr. Michael Greig is an assistant professor of political science whose research interests center around international conflict, security and conflict management. Most of his current research focuses on international mediation, peacekeeping and the stability and survival of nations with governments that have been transformed into democracies by other nations, including the governments in Iraq and Afghanistan. With his UNT colleague Dr. Andrew Enterline, an associate professor of political science, Greig studies the conditions associated with the political stability, survival of democracy and autocracy, and regional effect of these regimes. The professors' research has been published in "Foreign Policy Analysis," "Journal of Conflict Resolution," "Journal of Politics" and other journals, and was featured in "The Washington Post" last year.

Phone number: 940-372-0964

E-mail: greig@unt.edu

Dr. Milan J. Reban, an associate professor of political science and longtime member of the UNT Department of Political Science faculty, researches European integration, nationalities and minorities in Europe and Asia, and has visited the Republic of Georgia several times. The co-editor of "The Politics of Ethnicity in Eastern Europe," Reban is also the author of articles and chapters in "The Political Handbook of the World," "Religion and Atheism in the USSR and Eastern Europe," "The International Law Newsletter," "International Review of History and Political Science" and other anthologies. He is a frequent lecturer and contributor to international seminars and symposia, especially on and in Central Europe.

Phone numbers: (972) 948-7786 (cell phone) or (972) 618-8870 (home)

A new book by Scott McClellan, who served as press secretary for President Bush from July 2003 to April 2006, reportedly criticizes the administration’s handling of communications regarding the war in Iraq and Hurricane Katrina. Excerpts from “What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington’s Culture of Deception” released on Tuesday (May 27) indicated the White House was busy trying to spin information when it should have been relaying important information in a truthful matter. The book, which the White House has dismissed as the work of a disgruntled former employee, will go on sale June 2.

Dr. Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, assistant professor of political science at the University of North Texas, says McClellan may have waited until now to make his allegations about the Bush administration because all recent presidential administrations have been engaged in a “permanent campaign” in which the administration’s message and its clarity is vital to presidential leadership and policy success. Therefore, McClellan had to set aside his personal views when he was press secretary, instead of speaking up and disagreeing with Bush, he says.

“The press secretary, as representative of the president and the president’s views, provides access to those views without the president having to devote his limited time to giving members of the media what they want: answers to their questions about the presidency,” he says. “Certainly, the administration has an obligation to tell the truth. But there are gray areas — times when the president feels compelled to lie, mislead, or tell the truth. All administrations stretch the truth, withhold information or even lie to some extent. Perhaps there are ‘lies’ that are more consequential than others.”

Eshbaugh-Soha is the author of “The President’s Speeches: Beyond ‘Going Public,” which explores the impact of the president’s signals on the adoption and implementation of public policy. He teaches a course on the presidency and researches presidential television addresses and other presidential speeches.

He notes that McClellan’s opinions about the Bush administration that are stated in his book may not have been the same views that he held when he was serving as press secretary, adding that he does not accuse the administration of outright “lying” in selling of the war in Iraq.

“Perhaps, like many of those in government and many of the American people, his view of the Iraq war has changed as more information has been brought forth,” Eshbaugh-Soha says. “Much of McClellan’s observations about the president are very consistent with other past White House officials who have written books on their time in the Bush administration.”

Eshbaugh-Soha says the limited data on the administration suggests that the administration “spent more time on message than it spent debating the complexities and difficulties of public policy.”

“Whether it was a ‘lie’ or not depends on our own unique views of this reality,” he says, adding that whether or not a ‘lie’ given by a presidential administration is acceptable or not to the American people “really depends on the severity of the lie, its impact on American democracy and, ultimately, an individual’s predisposition.”

“Democrats were more willing to downplay President Clinton’s ‘lie’ about ‘not having sexual relations with that woman…Ms. Lewinsky’ than were Republicans,” he says. “If we are inclined to trust government, we are more likely to take what we hear as truth, so the foundation of trust between the press secretary and the press is vital.”

Once the press question the veracity of the press secretary, then the press secretary can no longer function and must be replaced, he says, noting that McClellan was forced to resign after he denied allegations that White House senior aides Karl Rove and Scooter Libby were involved in revealing the identity of covert CIA operative Valerie Plame.

Eshbaugh-Soha may be reached at his office at (940) 565-2329 or at mes@unt.edu.

Two months ago, many political analysts believed that the Texas presidential primary was of little importance to this year's candidates, since the analysts believed that Feb. 5 primaries on "Super Tuesday" would have provided a clear winner for both the Republicans and the Democrats.

But with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama splitting the delegates on "Super Tuesday" almost evenly, and with the two candidates in a statistical dead heat in Texas, according to polls, the large number of Texas delegates -- 193 -- has given the Lone Star State an important role in the nomination battles.

As you continue your coverage of next Tuesday's Texas primary, consider these University of North Texas experts who can discuss a variety of topics related to the nominating process.

Dr. Emily Clough, assistant professor of political science, says Texas Democrats seem to be very excited "to be voting in an election that will make a difference to national results." Texas hasn't played an important role in either party's nomination battles since 1976, when the state's voters awarded all 100 delegates to insurgent Republican Ronald Reagan in his closely fought campaign against incumbent President Gerald Ford.

"The combination of the electoral college and the dominance of Republicans in Texas leaves Texas Democrats often feeling as through their votes don't have much impact in the general election," Clough says. "The late timing of the primaries in Texas almost always results in the nominees being chosen before the contest gets here."

Dr. Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, Clough's colleague in the UNT Department of Political Science, adds the Texas primary, along with the Ohio primary on the same day, could decide the Democratic nominee.

"As others have said, Hillary Clinton needs to win both Texas and Ohio to stay alive in this race," says Eshbaugh-Soha, an assistant professor of political science. "So, for perhaps the first time ever, it is Texas, not Iowa or New Hampshire, that weighs most heavily in the Democratic nomination."

Clough notes two interesting aspects of the Texas Democratic primary for this year -- the fact that voters need to be registered at least 30 days before the primary to be eligible to vote and the mixed primary/caucus system, which organizers are calling the "Texas Two-Step."

Obama, Clough says, "started his campaign by drawing from the ranks of new voters," and because the early deadline to register to vote in the primary makes it more difficult for new voters to vote, "that might work against Obama."

"However, Obama is gaining support across the board now, and the registration requirement may play less of a role than originally speculated," she says.

Clough and Eshbaugh-Soha agree that Ralph Nader, who announced his candidacy for president as an independent this past weekend, will not have much influence on this year's election, though many Democrats consider the consumer advocate, who is running for president for the fifth time since 1992,  to be one of the main reasons that Al Gore lost the 2000 election. Eshbaugh-Soha points out that Nader's voter share has fallen during the past eight years.

"I think it will continue to go down, lower than 2004. He will continue to have difficulty getting on ballots, and I think there will be much less excitement surrounding his campaign, given the excitement surrounding the Democratic nominees," he says. "The rules for third party candidates to get on the general election ballot, which is a state-by-state effort, are restrictive."

In Texas, he adds, a voter cannot sign a petition to add a third party candidate to the ballot if the voter has voted in the primary, so given the expected record turnout for the Texas primary, fewer voters will be eligible to sign a petition for Nader than in past years, he says.

Eshbaugh-Soha has published research in the American Journal of Political Science, Political Research Quarterly, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Policy Studies Journal, and Congress and the Presidency, and has contributed chapters to "Politics in the American States" and "Public Opinion and Polling around the World." He is the author of "The President's Speeches: Beyond ‘Going Public,'" which explores the impact of the president's signals on the adoption and implementation of public policy. Clough has been a reviewer for American Political Science Review, Journal of Theoretical Politics, and Political Psychology, and published her research in British Journal of Political Science.   

Clough may be reached at:

E-mail address: eclough@unt.edu

Office phone number: (940) 565-2214

Home phone number: (940) 381-2341

Eshbaugh-Soha may be reached at:

Office phone number: (940) 565-2329

E-mail address: mes@unt.edu