Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 2.4 Percent in January from December
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BTS 12-08
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, March 12, 2008
- The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) rose 2.4 percent in January
from its December level, matching its largest monthly increase in the last two
years, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation
Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The January
increase was the third rise in the last four months (Table 2). At 111.5, the freight TSI is down 1.5 percent from
its peak of 113.1 achieved in November 2005 but up 3.2 percent in the four
months since its recent low of 108.0 in September 2007. For additional
historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
With the
January increase of 2.4 percent, the freight index had its largest climb to start
the year since the January 1993 increase of 4.2 percent (Table 3).
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
The
January freight TSI of 111.5 was 2.7 percent higher than the January 2007 level
and remains 0.3 percent below the January 2006 level and 1.3 percent lower than
the January 2005 level (Table 4).
Despite
declines from recent January levels, the freight index has increased 7.9
percent in five years and 13.5 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally
adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year
of 2000. It includes historic data from
1990 to the present. Release of the February index is scheduled for April
9.
BTS has issued
a new technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report:
Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 1.4
percent in January from its December level, falling after a one-month rise
(Table 6). The Passenger TSI January 2008
level of 115.5 was 1.3 percent higher than the January 2007 level, marking six
consecutive annual increases since January 2003 (Table 7). With the January
decline, the passenger index dropped to start the year as it did in 2007 (Table 3). However, the passenger index is up 19.2
percent in five years and 27.6 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger
TSI rose 1.5 percent in January from its December level, after a one-month decline
(Table 8). The combined TSI January 2008 level of 112.1 was 2.4 percent higher
than the January 2007 level (Table 9). With the January increase, the combined index started the year with an
increase following a decline to start 2007 (Table 3). The combined index is up 10.7
percent in five years and 17.2 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for September (Freight, Passenger and Combined)
were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component
transportation services. The September Freight TSI is 108.0, revised from the 108.1
reported in the February release. The September Passenger TSI is 117.4, revised
from 117.2. The September Combined TSI is unchanged from 109.9. The TSI for October, November, December and January are
preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI
is updated monthly with the latest four months’ index numbers considered
preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and
replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information
about the monthly revision policy, the 2007 comprehensive revision conducted
with the July release and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since July 2007
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
July |
108.4 |
0.1 |
116.2 |
-0.1 |
109.9 |
0.0 |
August |
109.0 |
0.5 |
117.4 |
1.1 |
110.7 |
0.7 |
SeptemberR |
108.0 |
-0.9 |
117.4 |
-0.1 |
109.9 |
-0.7 |
OctoberP |
109.5 |
1.4 |
116.0 |
-1.2 |
110.7 |
0.8 |
NovemberP |
110.2 |
0.7 |
115.0 |
-0.9 |
111.0 |
0.3 |
DecemberP |
108.8 |
-1.3 |
117.1 |
1.8 |
110.5 |
-0.5 |
JanuaryP |
111.5 |
2.4 |
115.5 |
-1.4 |
112.1 |
1.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
(P) 2.4 |
February |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
|
March |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
|
April |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
|
May |
0.0 |
2.4 |
-0.1 |
|
June |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
|
July |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
0.1 |
|
August |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
|
September |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
(R) -0.9 |
|
October |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
(P) 1.4 |
|
November |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
(P) 0.7 |
|
December |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
(P) -1.3 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Annual Change, 1999-2008
Percent change from December of previous year
December to January
Excel | CSV
1999 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
2000 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
2001 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
2002 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
2003 |
-1.3 |
-0.8 |
-1.2 |
2004 |
-1.5 |
-1.2 |
-1.4 |
2005 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
2006 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
2007 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
2008P |
2.4 |
-1.4 |
1.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the January
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
99.8 |
1.7 |
2000 |
104.2 |
4.4 |
2001 |
99.2 |
-4.8 |
2002 |
98.2 |
-1.0 |
2003 |
103.3 |
5.2 |
2004 |
106.5 |
3.1 |
2005 |
112.9 |
6.0 |
2006 |
111.7 |
-1.0 |
2007 |
108.5 |
-2.9 |
2008P |
111.5 |
2.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2008
(January to January)
Excel | CSV
2007 |
1 |
2.7 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
2006 |
2 |
-0.3 |
4.1 |
0.8 |
2005 |
3 |
-1.3 |
7.0 |
0.7 |
2004 |
4 |
4.7 |
16.4 |
7.5 |
2003 |
5 |
7.9 |
19.2 |
10.7 |
2002 |
6 |
13.5 |
26.1 |
16.6 |
2001 |
7 |
12.4 |
13.7 |
12.1 |
2000 |
8 |
6.9 |
21.1 |
10.6 |
1999 |
9 |
11.6 |
23.6 |
14.7 |
1998 |
10 |
13.5 |
27.6 |
17.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to October 2007 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.4 |
February |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
|
March |
0.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
|
April |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
|
May |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
|
June |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
|
July |
0.1 |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
|
August |
0.2 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
|
September |
1.4 |
0.9 |
(R) -0.1 |
|
October |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
(P) -1.2 |
|
November |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
(P) -0.9 |
|
December |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
(P) 1.8 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the January
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
93.4 |
3.2 |
2000 |
95.3 |
2.1 |
2001 |
101.6 |
6.5 |
2002 |
91.5 |
-9.9 |
2003 |
96.8 |
5.8 |
2004 |
99.2 |
2.5 |
2005 |
107.9 |
8.7 |
2006 |
110.9 |
2.8 |
2007 |
114.0 |
2.8 |
2008P |
115.5 |
1.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
(P) 1.5 |
February |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
|
March |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
|
April |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
|
May |
0.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
|
June |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
|
July |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
|
August |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
0.7 |
|
September |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
(R) -0.7 |
|
October |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
(P) 0.8 |
|
November |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
(P) 0.3 |
|
December |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
(P) -0.5 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the January
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
97.8 |
2.2 |
2000 |
101.4 |
3.7 |
2001 |
100.0 |
-1.4 |
2002 |
96.2 |
-3.8 |
2003 |
101.3 |
5.4 |
2004 |
104.3 |
2.9 |
2005 |
111.3 |
6.8 |
2006 |
111.2 |
-0.1 |
2007 |
109.5 |
-1.6 |
2008P |
112.1 |
2.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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