Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 835 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM
SRN PLAINS. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AR EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS THRU THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...HALES
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 835 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM
SRN PLAINS. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AR EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS THRU THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 8 TORNADO AR KY MO MS TN 081435Z - 082200Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65ENE POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/ - 10SW ELD/EL DORADO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /52SE FAM - 13SW ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
LAT...LON 37118775 33119138 33119450 37119101
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 8 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 8
VALID 081830Z - 081940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ELD
TO 25 W PBF TO 35 E LIT TO 20 SSE BVX TO 15 SSW POF TO 20 WSW CGI.
..GOSS..01/08/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-053-055-067-
069-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-123-139-145-147-
081940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
GRANT GREENE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN
LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE
OUACHITA PHILLIPS POINSETT
PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS UNION
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-145-157-081940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-081940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TATE
TUNICA
$$
MOC023-069-133-143-155-201-207-081940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT SCOTT
STODDARD
$$
TNC017-033-045-047-053-075-079-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-
081940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HAYWOOD
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 8
VALID 081730Z - 081840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TXK TO
35 NW ELD TO 25 S HOT TO 20 SW LIT TO 20 N LIT TO 20 WSW POF TO
30 WSW CGI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 29.
..GOSS..01/08/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-021-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-053-055-
059-063-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-093-095-099-103-107-111-117-
119-121-123-139-145-147-081840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW GRANT GREENE
HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE NEVADA
OUACHITA PHILLIPS POINSETT
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS UNION WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-145-157-081840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-081840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TATE
TUNICA
$$
MOC023-069-133-143-155-181-201-207-081840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD
$$
TNC017-033-045-047-053-075-079-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-
081840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HAYWOOD
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 8
VALID 081630Z - 081740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TXK
TO 35 NE TXK TO 35 E RUE TO 25 WNW BVX TO 25 NNE POF.
..GOSS..01/08/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-
053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-091-093-095-
099-103-107-111-117-119-121-123-125-135-137-139-145-147-
081740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
GRANT GREENE HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN
LONOKE MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA
PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SALINE SHARP STONE
UNION WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-145-157-081740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-081740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TATE
TUNICA
$$
MOC023-069-133-143-155-181-201-207-081740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD
$$
TNC017-033-045-047-053-075-079-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-
081740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HAYWOOD
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.