Acknowledgment: This is a (slightly modified) copy of the "BeppoSAX reentry FAQs" document ot the
ASI BeppoSAX Reentry page.
Frequently Asked Questions BeppoSAX Reentry FAQs Q: How many objects re-enter the Earth's atmosphere? A: On average, one piece of debris of small size every 2-3 days. One larger size object or intact debris every 10-12 days. Such intact objects could be rocket bodies or satellites. Q: Is BeppoSAX a controlled satellite? A: No. The satellite was switched off in April 2002. Q: How much material from the BeppoSAX satellite will survive at reentry? A: Generally, about 10-50 % of a satellite's mass will survive at reentry. After detailed analysis of the construction materials used, the satellite shape, size, and weight, the specific BeppoSAX percentage is found to be 47%. The high percentage is due to the several component made of stainless steel and titanium. Q: How many fragments will survive at reentry and which is the heaviest fragment? A: About 42 fragments, the biggest of them being about 120 kg. Q: Where can the fragments fall to Earth's surface? A: Taking into account the satellite orbit inclination and the debris dispersion during the reentry, any location included in the latitude belt of +4.4 or -4.4 degrees might be reached by the surviving fragments. Q: At what altitude does the final reentry phase start and how long does it take from then for the fragments to reach the ground? A: The reentry phase will start at an altitude of120 km and will take about 40 min for the fragments to touch the ground (firstly a fragment of about 3 kg and 3 minutes later, the last of them, of only about 6 grams). Q: What is the longitude range involved during last orbit? A: The longitude range during all of the reentry phase (from 120 km altitude until 0 km) will involve a little bit less than about 2/3 of an entire orbit (222 degrees in longitude). Q: Will the satellite be monitored during its reentry on ground? A: The reentry in the dense layer of the atmosphere will be possibly monitored until 90 km of altitude. Unless the satellite re-enters above a specially equipped radar site, no real-time sensor data will be available during the last phase of the flight. Q: Is there an independent source of information for this event? A: The orbital parameters are available daily through the NASA Goddard Space Center web site as Two Line Elements. Q: When will the satellite re-enter the Earth and what is the relative error of the time window? A: The nominal reentry is now foreseen between 19 April and 21 June 2003. Q: How precise is the forecast for the reentry time window? A: The reentry window has a confidence level of approximately 90%. This means that there is a probability of approximately 90% that the reentry will occur inside such a window. The amplitude of the window is a function of the uncertanties in the solar activity predictions, atmospheric models and satellite aerodynamics. Q: How large is the impact debris footprint? A: Debris that survives reentry will impact within a impact debris footprint (i.e. the area on the ground that contains all of the debris fragments), of 320 km along track and plus or minus 42 km across track. It is possible to estimate the size of the footprint, but very difficult to predict where the footprint will be on Earth's surface or where specific pieces of debris will land. Q: Can we predict where the satellite fragments or debris will land? A: It is very difficult to predict where all BeppoSAX debris will actually land. The few surviving pieces of the object will be spread over a long footprint, so that two nearly identical fragments may impact many miles apart. Since predicting where specific pieces will land is very difficult, analysts generally predict the location of the debris impact footprint to indicate the general area where debris will land. Unfortunately, predicting where the debris footprint will be on Earth's surface for the BeppoSAX fragments reentry is also difficult. The primary difficulty with predicting the footprint location relates to the uncertainties in predicting the object's lifetime in orbit. Given sufficient tracking of the object during the orbit decay combined with measurements of the sun's activity over extended time (solar activity can have dramatic effects on the upper atmosphere), it is possible to obtain a fairly good approximation of the date and time (but not location) of an object's final reentry. In general, there is about a ±10 percent uncertainty of the time of the final reentry. Considering that orbiting objects are traveling at more than 7 km/sec, a prediction made at the beginning of the object's last orbit, which could take about 90 minutes to complete, could be off by as much as ±9 minutes, equivalent to more than 7,000 km on the ground. This means that the debris footprint could be located anywhere along this 7,000-km-long path. In practice, the last trajectory data available before re-entry may precede the event by several hours, implying an uncertainty of ±45 minutes in the predicted reentry time, corresponding to a full orbital track. Q: Is the reentry material toxic for humans or bodies of water? A: There might be hydrazine propellant or battery chemicals which are toxic agents. Do not touch or inhale them. Q: Is the reentry material of strategic value? A: No. Q: How can the risk on transportation on the ground, at sea and on planes be minimized? A: The day before the last, an additional NOTAM will be issued with precise trajectories (latitude and longitude) and risk time windows. Local civil protection departments should minimize the risk of secondary effects. Q: What kind of alert from the launching country is foreseen before the reentry? A: A number of alert statements will be issued at increasing frequency, as reentry will approach. They will be available at this web site. In general risk assessments will be given daily in the last week, in terms of risky time windows for each location flown over by the satellite. Q: How will the fragments fall down and reach the ground? A: All of them will fall down vertically. Some small horizontal components may be added by local winds, especially for the lighter fragments. Q: Could fragments be seen by the naked eye from the ground? A: Probably not much during daylight. From sunset to dawn the reentry will be visible as a bright meteor, breaking up in many branches as the fragments detach from the main body of the spacecraft. The phenomenon will be visible for a few minutes until 2 or 3 minutes before the debris impact with the ground. Q: What are the velocity ranges that all fragments have when they hit the ground? A: From 60 to 460 km/h. Q: What should do the local contact point be when a country is found to be involved in the reentry? A: Alert the population to stay inside concrete houses (if possible) for a period of about 10 minutes as specified in this web site. Q: What is the evaluated risk of individual injury? A: The BeppoSAX risk that an individual will be hit and injured is estimated to be less than one in five thousand. Reentry risk estimates are supported by the fact that, over the last 40 years, more than 1,400 metric tons of material are believed to have survived reentry with no reported casualties (of course, it is possible that casualties have occurred somewhere in the world, but have not been reported). Q: Has anyone been hit by falling debris? A: Reportedly, only one individual has been struck by debris from a reentering spacecraft. There have been several noteworthy reentries affecting populated areas. For example, the February 7, 1991 reentry of the USSR's Salyut 7/Kosmos 1686 space station, with a mass of 36,700 kg, occurred over a populated region. Salyut 7 reentered over Argentina, scattering much of its debris over the town of Capitan Bermudez, 400 km from Buenos Aires. The townspeople observed the reentry of Salyut 7's debris in their night sky as incandescent meteors, traveling from the southwest to the northeast. The next day, metal fragments were found dispersed throughout the town. Luckily, no one was hit or hurt. The 1979 reentry of the U.S. vehicle Skylab was similar. NASA controllers modulated the attitude of Skylab during the final orbits to encourage reentry in an orbit that passed over as few populated areas as possible. The final reentry of Skylab rained small bits of debris over a town on the southern Australian coast. Heavier debris landed inland. Again, no one was hurt. Q: Who will pay the eventual damages? A: By international treaty, the launching country is responsible for all proved damages that are directly related to the satellite reentry. |
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