Solid Economic Growth Predicted in Current State Forecast
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For Immediate Release: May 14, 2007
DBEDT Release News 07-11
HONOLULU--In its latest quarterly economic report, the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) reaffirms its previous forecasts that Hawaii's economy will show moderate growth this year.
Personal income, total wage and salary jobs, and gross domestic product (GDP), formerly called gross state product (GSP), are all forecast to increase.
"The state's economy is still on the expansion path after several years of faster than the national average growth," said DBEDT Director Theodore E. Liu. "Based on our robust job growth and strong construction activities, we are confident in our economic growth projections for the next several years."
After a flat 2006, DBEDT forecasts that visitor arrivals will increase 1.0 percent in 2007, a 0.4 of a percentage point drop from its February forecast. DBEDT estimates real personal income growth to be 1.8 percent in 2007 and 1.9 percent in 2008.
In response to recent increases in energy and housing prices, Honolulu's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is now forecast to increase 4.5 percent in 2007, 0.5 of a percentage point higher than in the previous forecast. In 2008, Honolulu's CPI is expected to rise 3.8 percent, up 0.4 of a point higher than in February.
The forecast of wage and salary job growth is unchanged at 1.8 percent in 2007 and 1.5 percent in 2008. Hawaii real GDP growth is predicted to be 2.7 percent in 2006 and 2.6 percent in 2007.
The DBEDT Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report contains more than 100 tables of the most recent quarterly data on Hawaii's economy as well as narrative explanations of the trends in these data. The full report is available at http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/economic/data_reports/qser.
2005 to 2010
| Economic Indicators | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Actual) | (Forecast) | |||||
| Total population (thousands) | 1,273 | 1,285 | 1,299 | 1,313 | 1,326 | 1,340 |
| Visitor arrivals (thousands) | 7,494 | 7,492 | 7,567 | 7,717 | 7,872 | 8,043 |
| Visitor days (thousands) | 68,242 | 68,054 | 68,880 | 70,246 | 71,668 | 73,240 |
| Visitor expenditures (million dollars) | 11,904 | 12,261 | 12,660 | 13,242 | 13,908 | 14,635 |
| Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100) | 197.8 | 209.4 | 218.8 | 227.1 | 234.9 | 242.4 |
| Personal income (million dollars) | 43,913 | 46,662 1/ | 49,649 | 52,528 | 55,365 | 58,244 |
| Real personal income (millions of 2000$) | 39,140 | 39,286 1/ | 40,001 | 40,771 | 41,560 | 42,365 |
| Total wage & salary jobs (thousands) | 608.6 | 623.5 | 634.7 | 644.3 | 652.6 | 660.5 |
| Gross domestic product (million dollars) 2/ | 54,019 | 57,368 4/ | 60,523 | 63,671 | 66,854 | 70,197 |
| Real gross domestic product (millions of 2000$) 2/ | 46,466 3/ | 47,724 4/ | 48,978 | 50,219 | 51,444 | 52,699 |
| Gross domestic product deflator (2000=100) 2/ | 116.3 3/ | 120.2 4/ | 123.6 | 126.8 | 130.0 | 133.2 |
| Annual Percentage Change | ||||||
| Total population | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Visitor arrivals | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Visitor days | 7.7 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Visitor expenditures | 9.6 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Honolulu CPI-U | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Personal income | 6.8 | 6.3 1/ | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Real personal income | 2.9 | 0.4 1/ | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Total wage & salary jobs | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Gross domestic product 2/ | 7.5 | 6.2 4/ | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Real gross domestic product 2/ | 4.0 3/ | 2.7 4/ | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Gross domestic product deflator 2/ | 3.4 3/ | 3.4 4/ | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
2/ Formerly called 'Gross state product'. See U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/GSPNewsRelease.htm.
3/ DBEDT-adjusted U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate.
4/ DBEDT estimate.
Source: Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, May 7, 2007.
For more information, contact:
Dave Young
Communications
Phone: (808) 587-1212
Email: dyoung@dbedt.hawaii.gov