000
FXUS62 KMFL 250128
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
928 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.UPDATE...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVERGENT BANDS
OFFSHORE MIAMI DADE WITH PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MIAMI DADE. RADAR ESTIMATES CLOSE TO AN
INCH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY. THE LOCAL WRF MODEL
INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON AND
OFF AS FLOW INLAND DECOUPLES AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE PERSISTS. SO
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.

ON THE MARINE SIDE BUOYS OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INDICATE
SWELLS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 13 TO 14 SECONDS. THAT
SHOULD RESULT IN SWELLS OF AROUND 6 FEET (HIGHER OFFSHORE) WITH A
PERIOD OF 15 TO 17 SECONDS REACHING THE PALM BEACH COAST IN ABOUT
7 TO 8 HOURS. BUT SINCE THOSE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SINCE
EARLIER TODAY, THESE SWELLS SHOULD BE ABOUT TO BEGIN IF NOT
ALREADY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST. THOSE KIND OF SWELLS
SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKERS OF ABOUT 10 FEET STARTING TONIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW. SWELLS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY BUT GIVEN THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE
SWELLS THEY WILL LIKELY STILL EXPERIENCE ROUGH SURF. SO WILL PUT
UP A COASTAL STATEMENT FOR BROWARD FOR RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008/

UPDATE...KPBI, KFXE AND KFLL WILL STAY PREDOMINANTLY VFR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. KOPF, KMIA AND KTMB WILL BE TEMPO IN MVFR SHOWERS TIL
ARND 03Z. KAPF WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PUT IN A VCSH AFTER
07-09Z FOR ALL EAST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN SHOWERS
UNTIL 03Z FOR THE EAST TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH ARE CONVERGING WITH WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW HAS FAILED TO MAKE MUCH
HEADWAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS PATTERN AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A COMPLEX SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT I`VE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AS AT LEAST SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE A DRAINAGE WIND SETS UP
OVERNIGHT CREATING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MORE SHOWER GENERATION. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BY
THIS EVENING WITH MORE STABILITY TAKING HOLD AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S VERSUS LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BEGIN THE DAYS...BUT MODELS NOW SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS COULD COMBINE WITH A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO DESPITE
INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. NORTHWEST INTERIOR AREAS AS WELL
AS COLLIER COUNTY MAY REMAIN DRY AS THE STRONGEST PUSH OF DRY AIR
IMPACTS THESE LOCATIONS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE
60S WHICH WILL BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE HUMIDITY...WITH EVEN SOME
SUBTLE BUT NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COOLER NORTHWEST INTERIOR AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...WITH
LOWER IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AND NAPLES AREAS.

THE GFS HAS CHANGED SOME ON THE 12Z RUN THIS MORNING...MOVING
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AND THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION A LITTLE QUICKER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. WILL NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET AS THIS IS THE FIRST HINT OF THIS.

MODERATE SWELLS WITH LARGE BREAKERS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE NORTHERN
PALM BEACH COAST AT JUPITER INLET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE
NOTED THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW 10FT/12S SWELLS AT
BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 WHICH HAVE BEEN PRETTY STEADY THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PEAK SWELLS BETWEEN 5 AND 6FT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY BEFORE DECREASING
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ESPECIALLY AROUND 5AM TOMORROW MORNING AND
BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS MADE VULNERABLE BY
SWELL EVENTS THE PAST FEW YEARS. CURRENT FORECAST AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REFLECT THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS WELL.

MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND 20KTS SUSTAINED ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN RAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SEAS PEAKING
AROUND 10-11FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND GIVEN CURRENT UPSTREAM TRENDS AND
WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND ACCURATE SO
FAR THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...I SLOWED THE
RATE OF DECAY IN THE SEAS SOME AS WAVE WATCH SHOWS SWELLS LINGERING
A BIT LONGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DECREASE TOMORROW AND LINGER IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTERIOR SECTIONS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RH`S DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO AROUND PEAK HEATING...BUT IF EVEN DRIER AIR CAN MIX DOWN FROM
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THEN RH`S COULD DROP TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  87  67  87 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  87  70  87 / 30 10 10 10
MIAMI            75  87  71  86 / 30 10 10 10
NAPLES           72  86  67  88 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...52/PS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR