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000 FXUS62 KMFL 250806 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 405 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008 CURRENTLY...WINDS NE 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE ATLC BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER KEYS/FLA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC WATERS MOVING ONSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH A WIND SURGE AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. SHOWERS EXTEND TO THE MID INTERIOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. DISCUSSION...AS 50H RIDGE MOVES E FROM E CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ...THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST MOVE WESTWARD AND OVER THE SE U.S. BY FRI MORNING. BY SUN...THE UPPER SYSTEM/SUR -FACE LOW BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. S FLA THOUGH REMAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH THE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE ATLC UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT...SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY E HALF OF AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON EXTREME S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS S FLA. MOISTURE LINGERS JUST S OF AREA TONIGHT. SW WINDS ALOFT FRI INTO SAT GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE AGAIN OVER S FLA. MINIMAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE EXTREME S PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FRI AND TO THE W COAST...EX -TREME S PENINSULA AND ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT. ON SAT...THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. .EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH THU...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE PERSISTS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES OF RAIN DAILY CAN BE EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON. && MARINE...N/NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING AFFECTING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...BISCAYNE BAY AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS...THEN THE WINDS BEGIN A DECREASE. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE NE SWELLS GENERAT -ED BY THE SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW 10-13FT/11-13S SWELLS AT BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 WHICH LEAD TO PEAK SWELLS BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT ALONG COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE TONIGHT. MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 5 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST PRIMARILY BUT POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY AS WELL. SOME BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ATLC SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 10-11FT ...MAINLY OFF OF PALM BEACH IN THE GULF STREAM. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT...THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TONIGHT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BOATING AND BEACH INTERESTS WILL BE AFFECTED. A COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AFFECTING PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH EROSION AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. FOR THE BEACHES OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND HIGH RISK OF RIP EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER...DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S NW INTERIOR TODAY AND FRI AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 85 69 87 71 / 10 10 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 86 72 87 73 / 10 10 10 10 MIAMI 87 71 88 72 / 10 10 10 10 NAPLES 87 69 87 69 / 5 10 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ168. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...15/JR SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT