[Printable]
Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here
000 FXUS62 KMFL 200545 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008 .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER A BRIEF SHRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT THEN PUSH INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. AT APF THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND AND HAVE ONLY REFLECTED NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS THE TERMINAL BY AFTERNOON ONLY TO RETURN TO SEA LATER IN THE DAY. /TINGLER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/ UPDATE... REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE GULF WATERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN AN ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME SUCH AS THE ONE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS...BUT TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 70/DD AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/ AVIATION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCT-NMRS SHWRS OVER ATLC WATERS MOVING SOUTHWEST. WL EXPECT A FEW OF THESE TO PASS CLOSE TO ERN TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE COAST THROUGH 06Z BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING KTMB. SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN OVR KAPF THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS SHOULD BE MORE EASTERLIES AND NOT AS GUSTY OVER ERN TERMINALS SATURDAY, HOWEVER, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER ATLC WATERS/NRN BAHAMAS TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD AND SO WILL INDICATE VCSH AGAIN IN THE TAFS FOR SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGEST TSTM ACTIVITY OVER ERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO WL INDICATE VCTS FOR ALL ERN TERMINALS STARTING AT 17Z BUT EXPECT SEA BREEZE WL PUSH ALL ACTIVITY INLAND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS (EXCEPT KTMB) BY 20Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/ DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS RAOB COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT MIMIC- TPW IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR STILL MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. 88-D SHOWS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST. HAD TO CHANGES THE POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY FROM 40 PERCENT TO AT MOST 20 PERCENT. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE GFS40 WANTS TO MOVE A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEST FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT AND SAT NGT BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WESTWARD. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AND WENT LOW CHC POPS. THE NAM12 FINALLY SHOWS THE MOISTURE AND TROUGH REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY. I INHERITED GOOD POPS WITH AN INCREASE BY MON SO THIS LOOKS GOOD. GFS40 MEAN RH RISES BY TUE AND WENT CLOSE TO MEXMOS WITH A HIGHER END CHANCE CATEGORY. ALSO IN THE SHORT TERM, A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEEKEND AND DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BUT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS, THE ATLANTIC LOW MOVES NORTH A WEAKENS ALSO. IN THE MEANTIME, A DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UNTIL THE LOW WEAKENS SUN NGT. THIS WILL SEND SOME SWELLS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. AN EVEN STRONGER NE FLOW DEVELOPS MID WEEK TO THE WEST OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. MARINE...WINDS WILL BE NE-E 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH SUN NGT EXCEPT TO 4 FEET PALM BEACH WATERS SAT NGT DUE TO 3 FOOT SWELLS. WAVES AND SWELLS DECREASE BY MONDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC TO LESS THAN 4 FEET. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT AND ON WED. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE AS THE RH`S WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 77 / 30 30 40 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 90 79 89 78 / 30 30 30 30 MIAMI 90 78 90 77 / 30 30 30 30 NAPLES 91 74 90 74 / 30 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$