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000 FXUS62 KMFL 191914 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008 .DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS RAOB COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT MIMIC- TPW IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR STILL MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. 88-D SHOWS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST. HAD TO CHANGES THE POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY FROM 40 PERCENT TO AT MOST 20 PERCENT. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE GFS40 WANTS TO MOVE A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEST FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT AND SAT NGT BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WESTWARD. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AND WENT LOW CHC POPS. THE NAM12 FINALLY SHOWS THE MOISTURE AND TROUGH REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY. I INHERITED GOOD POPS WITH AN INCREASE BY MON SO THIS LOOKS GOOD. GFS40 MEAN RH RISES BY TUE AND WENT CLOSE TO MEXMOS WITH A HIGHER END CHANCE CATEGORY. ALSO IN THE SHORT TERM, A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEEKEND AND DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BUT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS, THE ATLANTIC LOW MOVES NORTH A WEAKENS ALSO. IN THE MEANTIME, A DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UNTIL THE LOW WEAKENS SUN NGT. THIS WILL SEND SOME SWELLS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. AN EVEN STRONGER NE FLOW DEVELOPS MID WEEK TO THE WEST OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL BE NE-E 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH SUN NGT EXCEPT TO 4 FEET PALM BEACH WATERS SAT NGT DUE TO 3 FOOT SWELLS. WAVES AND SWELLS DECREASE BY MONDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC TO LESS THAN 4 FEET. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT AND ON WED. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE AS THE RH`S WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 77 89 / 20 30 30 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 79 89 / 20 30 30 30 MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 20 30 30 30 NAPLES 74 91 74 90 / 10 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...18/GR SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB