000
FXUS62 KMFL 241735
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ALL DAY LONG...FROM
NW TO NE...WITH SPEEDS UP AND DOWN EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. THIS IS
THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST AND I`M SURE OPERATIONS AT THE
TERMINALS. BELIEVE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE N-NE...BUT
CONTINUED SWITCHING OF DIRECTION/SPEED SHOULD STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHTS...AND COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE SOMEWHAT GREATER INTO THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND AS
SOME DRIER AIR EASES IN. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS 18-22Z WITH VCSH THEREAFTER. KAPF WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR.
/DG

&&

.UPDATE...
A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL EAST FLORIDA COAST. THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS LEAD TO
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN MAINLY FROM THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY BORDER NORTH INTO MARTIN THROUGH INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES.
THIS RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY
LATER THIS MORNING, SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY THERE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
SOUTHWEST OCCASIONALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHOWERS...WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. EVEN OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY BY THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE MIXING AND WIND FIELDS INCREASE.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TO THE NAPLES AREA BUT THINKING IS THAT MOST SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST.

THE JUPITER INLET WEBCAM SHOWS SOME SWELLS ALREADY AFFECTING THE
NORTH COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...POSSIBLY 2 TO 3 FEET. SWELLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM SWELLS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 7 TO 10 FEET AT
BUOYS 41009 AND 41010. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL NEED TO MONITOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WINDS ARE RUNNING 15-20
KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE MENTIONED SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NEEDED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE MARINE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE/MARINE: STRASSBERG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008/

AVIATION...LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST...SO KEPT WITH VCSH EAST COAST
TERMINALS TODAY AND WILL LIKELY NEED A FEW AMENDMENTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GUSTY WINDS TO 25
KNOTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SHOWERS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE FLA STRAITS AND A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. BOTH BOUNDARIES MOV
-ING S WITH A NE WIND MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS SW THROUGH THE ATLC
WATERS AND ONSHORE WITH THE SHOWERS DISSIPATING WELL INLAND FROM THE
COAST.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW HAS CLOSED OFF OVER THE ATLC JUST E OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE SE U.S.
TOMORROW BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING NE THIS WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OFF OF THE SE
U.S. COAST TODAY AND MOST OF THU BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. THE DISTUR
-BANCE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD...STRENGTHEN AND ABSORB
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SE U.S. THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SE OF
THE AREA WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD S FLA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED E OF
THE FLA PENINSULA AND SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING PULLED SOUTH
-WARD OVER THE FLA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT NE AND THE
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MINIMAL...AFFECTING MAINLY THE ATLC AND
ADJACENT E COAST ZONES TODAY THROUGH THU WITH SOME SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLY FRI NIL PRECIPITATION ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER
E COAST ZONES BUT NEARING NORMS ON THE W. WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TODAY...MIN TEMPS MAY FALL NEAR NORMS FOR
THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES BUT THE INTERIOR MAY SEE THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THU/FRI MORNINGS.

EXTENDED...SAT THROUGH TUE...AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
NW...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TOWARD S FLA. SOME E
COAST SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE ATLC COAST FRI NIGHT ON THE EAST
-ERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS S FLA BEGINNING SAT
INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND LESS STABILITY ALOFT LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDER MON AND TUE.

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING CAUTION CRITERIA OVER LAKE OKEE
..ATLC AND OUTER GULF WATERS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IN THE GULF
STREAM...SEAS HAVE INCREASED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE
TO THE WINDS BUT ALSO DUE TO A NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS SWELL WILL REACH 3 TO 5 FEET
OFF OF PALM BEACH TODAY AND 1 TO 3 FEET ELSEWHERE. THE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET OFF OF PALM BEACH AND 3 TO 5
FEET ELSEWHERE TONIGHT INTO THU. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
FOR MARINERS BUT FOR BEACH GOERS AS WELL. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH THU AT THE ATLC BEACHES AND WITH
THE INCREASED SWELLS/WINDS WAVES...BREAKERS UP TO 10 FEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COAST. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY WHICH MAY BE EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...PENDING HOW THE SWELLS
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

FIRE WEATHER...LOWER DEWPOINTS EXPECTED THU AND WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN GLADES AND POSSIBLY HENDRY
COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  73  86  71 / 60 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  76  86  75 / 50 20 10 10
MIAMI            88  75  87  74 / 40 20 10 10
NAPLES           89  72  87  70 / 10 -  10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT