000
FXUS62 KMFL 220746
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES ESE AND
DEEPENS OVER THE APPALACHIANS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM
OL` MEX NNE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDS.
THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CLOSED AND CUTOFF OVER THE CAROLINAS TUE AND
PERSISTS OVER THE ATLC OFF OF THE SE U.S. OR OVER THE SE U.S.
INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR THE CAROLINAS...A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS ...WHICH CONNECTS TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER
CENTRAL FLA. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES S
AND COMBINED WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...POPS
WILL BE HIGHER TODAY AND TUE DUE TO GREATER CONVERGENCE WITH THE
TROUGH AND E/W COAST SEA BREEZES. STEERING WINDS FAVOR THE INTERIOR
AND W/SW AREAS. TONIGHT...AFTER EVE CONVECTION MAINLY W...NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLC/E COAST TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.
BY WED...CIRCULATION ABOUT THE UPPER LOW TO THE N BRINGS A WESTERLY
DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT OVER S FLA AND POPS LOWER. MAX TEMPS MAY SHADE
A LITTLE LOWER AS INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP HAMPER THE
CLIMB TOWARDS NEAR NORM TEMPS.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...THU THROUGH SUN...POSITIONING AND PERMANENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER. CURRENTLY MODELS INDICATE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH FLOW FROM W TO E
WHICH MAY COOL THE W COAST SOME BUT WARM THE INTERIOR AND E. TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULLED TOWARD S FLA FROM THE SW AND
POPS COULD INCREASE. AT THE PRESENT TIME WILL CHANGE CURRENT PACKAGE
VERY LITTLE AWAITING DEVELOPMENTS. ONE GOOD THING WITH THE INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...IF THE CONVECTION NEAR PUERTO
RICO DEVELOPS INTO A DEPRESSION...SYSTEM SHOULD STAY E OF THE FLA
PENINSULA.

&&
.MARINE...EAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUE. THEN
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH S FLA WITH WINDS BECOMING NE
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING. GULF STREAM SEAS GRADUALLY RISEAS WELL WITH THE NE FLOW
AND CAUTION MAY BE REQUIRED TUE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY
FOR THE ATLC WATERS WED MORNING THROUGH FRI AS NE SWELLS MAY BEGIN
TO ADD TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS WITH LOW PRESS PERSISTENT OFF OF THE
CAROLINAS.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  86  74 / 50 40 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  86  75 / 40 40 50 30
MIAMI            90  79  87  75 / 40 40 50 30
NAPLES           91  74  89  73 / 50 40 60 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT