000
FXUS62 KMFL 190516
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
116 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER A QUICK SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH BRIEF LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS AND VIS
POSSIBLE. BY MID TO LATE MORNING SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS S FL... VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS.
A LAND BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS,
BUT ONLY TO REVERSE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. /TINGLER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
TODAY...AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHED SOUTH
FLORIDA...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW
ALOFT...LATEST VWP DATA FROM KAMX WSR 88-D SUGGESTS THAT INFLUENCE
OF STRONG SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS ALREADY
SPREAD OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST
8-10 KFT OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS IN
RADAR IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS/BISCAYNE BAY/LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO REFLECT RECENT
OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

70/DD

AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 20/00Z. VCSH LEFT UNTIL
19/03Z FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. A LIGHT NE FLOW AT ALL
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 11 KTS BY 19/15Z. LEFT
VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST ALSO BY 19/15Z. FOR KAPF...VCSH EXPECTED
BY 19/15Z WITH A NE FLOW.

/RIVERA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER THAN EXPECTED
INTO NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
INFLUENCE THE THE ADVANCING DRYER AIR AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH,
HAS ME HESITANT IN LOWERING THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE DRIER AIR REACHES SOUTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY
AND HANGS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CHANGES THE POP
FORECAST A LITTLE. I CHANGED AFTN POPS OF 50 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT
3 AFTNS TO 40 PERCENT AND THAT MAY BE A BIT HIGH. FCSTD SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWAT`S REACHING 1.6" BY FRIDAY AND CLIMBS A BIT SATURDAY
AND THEN TO AT LEAST 1.80 INCHES BY SUNDAY. BUT THE MID LEVELS
LOOK A BIT WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THE
WEEKEND MAY BE BETTER THAN EXPECTED ATTM. BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND PUSHES THE TROUGH NORTH AND EAST.
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS TALKED ABOUT PREVIOUSLY APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY SUNDAY DOESN`T HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT
AND MUCH SHALLOWER EASTERLIES. BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MUCH
DEEPER EASTERLIES RETURN AND PWAT`S CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND
HAVE UPPED THE POPS FOR THESE DAYS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MEXMOS.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS TNGT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN BASICALLY E 5 TO 10 KNOTS SAT THROUGH TUES. SPEEDS WILL
BE A LITTLE HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. LOOKED AT THE
WNAWAVE MODEL AND NOTICED A NE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 1.5
METERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT, IT
DOES PRODUCE A LOW BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE WAVE WATCH MODEL CONTINUES THIS SCENARIO.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE AS THE MINIMUM RH`S WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  75  89  77 / 40 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  88  78 / 40 30 40 30
MIAMI            90  77  89  78 / 40 30 40 30
NAPLES           90  73  90  74 / 40 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$