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000
FXUS62 KMFL 191338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.UPDATE...AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDINGS AT MIA AND UPSTREAM TPA
COMBINED WITH THE MIMIC-TPW, THE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
DRY AIR ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND DRIER AS
YOU GO NORTH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE 40% TO 30% FOR THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND LEFT IN 40% REST OF
AREA (LOWER THAN MAVMOS SOUTHEAST). THE CONVECTIVE WORKSHEET WASN`T
IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING ALL THE UPPER DRY AIR AND GAVE US ONLY THE
LOWER 30S FOR WIND GUSTS IN STORMS BUT THE INSTABILITY STILL
REMAINED. SO POPS ARE THE ONLY CHANGE (MINOR) TO THE ZFP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS S FLA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A QUICK PASSING SHRA MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE E
CST THIS MORNING BUT ANY LOWERING OF CIG/VSBY TO MVFR WILL ONLY BE
FOR LESS THAN 15 MINUTES. SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFT 14Z WITH LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW STEERING CONVECTION INLAND AWAY FROM THE E CST AND
HAVE ONLY PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS. THE THREAT REMAINS LOW ENOUGH
EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SW CST HAVE ONLY
PLACED VCSH IN THE TAF FOR KAPF. THE NE FLOW WILL PICK UP TO
AROUND 12KT ALONG THE E CST AFT 13Z AND THIS WILL PREVENT A W CST
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING.

30/KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

DISCUSSION...THE UNSEASONABLE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. E
SEA BOARD HAS MOVED E INTO THE ATLC. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE NE GULF OF MEX N INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVES E OVER THE
FLA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER
FLOW AND MEANDERS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MON.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS AND EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEX TO N OF
THE GREAT LAKES TUE...MOVING E TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLC STATES WED AND THU.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN...ATMOSPHERE A BIT DRIER BUT
SCATTERED POPS STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG THE E COAST THIS
MORNING AND IN THE INTERIOR AND W THIS AFTERNOON. SOME E COAST
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT. RIDGE OVER THE AREA SAT INTO SUN PUTS A
DRY MID LEVEL CAPPING LAYER OVER S FLA AND POPS AGAIN A BIT LOWER.

EXTENDED PERIOD...MON THROUGH THU...GRADUAL MOISTENING THE
ATMOSPHERE OCCURS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVES OVER S FLA. SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORM
TEMPS.

MARINE...WINDS NE 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY DUE TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING
WELL OFF OF THE COAST E OF JAX. WINDS BECOME E TONIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEXT
WEEK. GULF STREAM SEAS TO 5 FEET TODAY BUT BECOMING 4 FEET OR LESS
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO PROBLEMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  76  89  76 / 40 20 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  78  88  78 / 40 20 30 30
MIAMI            90  77  89  77 / 40 20 30 30
NAPLES           91  74  90  73 / 30 10 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB






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