Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
000 FGUS73 KAPX 262019 ESFAPX MIC011-033-055-135-165-262019- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 419 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2009 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES ENABLE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR LOCATIONS ON THE BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...AU SABLE...AND RIFLE RIVERS IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ON THE PINE RIVER IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. ...90 DAY HIGH FLOW FORECAST... IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID APRIL 27, 2009 - JUNE 26, 2009 LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD 7.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 15.0 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 15.5 AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 7.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.7 RIFLE RIVER STERLING 6.0 3.8 4.5 5.7 6.0 6.6 6.8 7.9 8.5 9.4 PINE RIVER RUDYARD 17.0 4.6 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.8 7.4 8.6 9.4 10.7 ...90 DAY LOW FLOW FORECAST... IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 10 THROUGH 90 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID APRIL 27, 2009 - JUNE 26, 2009 LOCATION FS 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% -------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD 7.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 15.0 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 7.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 RIFLE RIVER STERLING 6.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 PINE RIVER RUDYARD 17.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 AND 90 DAY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX FOR MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS OF THE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES. $$ JPB