000
AGUS71 KRHA 271445
HMDRHA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...MARFC WILL BEGIN 24 HOUR OPERATIONS...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES THERE WAS NO RAIN ACROSS MARFC`S
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD TODAY THEN
DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
MEANWHILE HURRICANE SANDY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE NNE AND REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND FORCE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN OF SANDY TOWARD
THE EAST COAST MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS MARFC`S FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE, SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA,
MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. 72 HOUR QPF IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
1 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER POTOMAC AND
LOWER SCHUYLKILL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RAINFALL FORECAST, MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
ALONG THE TRIBUTARIES IN THE LOWER POTOMAC, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA,
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ALONG SOME OF THE LOWER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA
TRIBUTARIES.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS (BOTH LOCATION
AND TIMING) AND THE CRITICAL TIME FOR MARFC`S HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA
WILL COME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A WIND SWEPT RAINFALL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND DUE TO THE GUSTY WIND MARFC IS EXPECTING THE
RAIN GAUGE NETWORK TO UNDER-CATCH.
ALL MARFC RIVER FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THE LATEST RIVER STAGE
AND FORECAST INFORMATION. MARFC WILL UPDATE RIVER AND STREAM
FORECASTS AS NEEDED.
NNNN
000
AGUS71 KRHA 261337
HMDRHA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
937 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW COMING OFF THE OCEAN BROUGHT A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE ONE
TENTH INCH OR LESS.
Value County St Location
0.10 Sullivan NY Callicoon F/P Precip
0.10 Sullivan NY Roscoe 2S LARC
0.05 Sullivan NY Callicoon Center
0.04 Carbon PA County Tower Ste IFL
0.04 Sussex NJ Wawayanda State Park
0.04 Passaic NJ Oak Ridge Res Alert
0.04 Sullivan NY Rock Hill 3SW
0.03 Sullivan PA Laporte
0.02 Steuben NY Adrian
0.02 Chenango NY Bainbridge
0.02 Hunterdon NJ Califon RAWS
0.02 Monroe PA Mount Pocono
0.02 Schoharie NY North Blenheim
0.02 Sussex NJ Wantage Twp 2.4SW CO
0.02 Monroe PA Stroudsburg 5.1W COC
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED IN SPOTS.
ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS HURRICANE
SANDY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS FOR
DAY 2 WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH IN THE NORTHWEST BASINS AND UP
TO 1 INCH IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
FOR SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA BASIN
AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM SANDY SLIDES UP ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH IN THE NORTHERN BASINS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA PENINSULA.
THE CRITICAL TIME WILL COME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS
TURN THE LOW TO THE LEFT AND MOVE IT ONSHORE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND NEW ENGLAND. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE EXACT TRACK
BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL BE A VERY INTENSE LOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. MORE DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS, ONLY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECASTED ALONG
THE COAST EAST OF THE RIVER BASINS.
DAILY HYDRO FORECASTS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
TJR
NNNN
000
AGUS71 KRHA 251431
HMDRHA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012
...POTENTIAL BIG EAST COAST STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A LINGERING WARM FRONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BASINS WEDNESDAY. MOST OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
Value County St Location
0.43 Chemung NY Chemung
0.36 Sullivan NY Hancock 10.5SE COCO
0.30 Sullivan NY Callicoon F/P Precip
0.28 Ulster NY Ellenville
0.25 Wayne PA Equinunk 2WNW
0.21 Susquehanna PA Thompson 3.9WNW COCO
0.20 Ulster NY Claryville F/P Preci
0.20 Bradford PA East Smithfield IFLO
0.20 Tioga PA Osceola F/P Precip
0.20 Sullivan NY Roscoe 2S LARC
0.20 Broome NY Windsor
0.19 Steuben NY Corning
0.17 Sullivan NY Woodridge 5.5S COCO
0.17 Susquehanna PA Susquehanna St. Park
0.16 Broome NY Endicott 5.2SSE COCO
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PROVIDE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
HURRICANE SANDY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME AS TO HOW THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. IT APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT LOW MAY REMAIN
OFF THE COAST OR IT MAY MOVE ASHORE AT SOME POINT BETWEEN NORTH
CAROLINA AND NEW ENGLAND.
IN ANY CASE, FORECASTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH 72 HOURS ARE ONE
HALF INCH OR LESS WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS.
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WE WILL KNOW MUCH MORE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TO
WHERE, WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
ALL DAILY RIVER FORECASTS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
TJR
NNNN
|
