000
AGUS72 KALR 251538
HMDALR
ALR

HYDROLOGIST FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER / ATLANTA, GA
1124 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008 

ATTENTION/ AREA AFFECTED WFO: ALR MLB 

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE ST JOHNS BASIN: 

... ASTOR NEARING MINOR FLOOD AGAIN ...

LOCAL RUNOFF FROM PAST RAINFALL HAS PUSHED ASTOR
BACK UP TO 2.78 FEET CLOSE TO THE 2.8 MINOR FLOOD 
STAGE.  THE LOCAL RUNOFF CONTRIBUTION TO THE OVERALL 
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY...HOWEVER...WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH 
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE SHOULD ENABLE WIND INDUCED BACK
WATER EFFECTS TO TAKE PLACE AT ASTOR.  THIS COULD KEEP
THE RIVER UP NEAR THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 2.8 THROUGH MONDAY AND 
LINGER INTO MID WEEK.  DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS 
OF THE RIVER FROM NON-FLOOD CONDTIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING TO FLOOD CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING DUE TO DIFFERING DIURNAL WIND SPEEDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR 
THIS LOCATION FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS AS
THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR REMAINS OUT OF ITS TYPICAL RIVER
CHANNEL.

JD

-------------------------------------------------
THE SERFC IS INTERESTED IN THE USEFULNESS OF THIS
PRODUCT AND WELCOMES YOUR COMMENTS OR FEEDBACK ON 
HOW THIS WAS USED IN YOUR OPERATIONS. PLEASE SEND
ANY COMMENTS TO....JOHN.FELDT@NOAA.GOV


...SERFC...




$$