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Fire Weather Forecasts |
Day 1 Outlook | Day 2 Outlook | Printable Version | Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info
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Please refer to local WFO fire weather forecasts for specific fire
weather watches and red flag warnings.
Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became official on June 12, 2007.
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Day 1 FireWX (print version) |
Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150654
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WEST...STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD
AND BECOME CENTERED ROUGHLY INVOF ID/NV/UT BORDERS. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME SITES APPROACHING OR REACHING RECORD
HIGHS. SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...HIGH HAINES INDICES...DRY FUELS...AND
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WHERE THERMAL INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO RAPID GROWTH OF NEW OR EXISTING FIRES.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EWD TOWARDS THE COAST. WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT DRY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ANY
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.
FARTHER S IN SRN CA/SWRN AZ RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY WITH POOR RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD...AND
VAD WIND PROFILE DATA REFLECTS A GRADUAL SHIFT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS TO SELY...SUPPORTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY TOMORROW.
IN THE ERN STATES...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE...WHILE A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES. WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING SOMEWHAT SWLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LAGS BEHIND...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE DEW POINT GRADIENT WILL NOT BE SHARPLY
DEFINED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..HURLBUT.. 09/15/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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Day 2 FireWX (print version) |
Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150737
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE OVER THE NRN CA COAST AHEAD
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD AND BECOME CENTERED INVOF CO. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. FURTHERMORE...THERMAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW...I.E. HIGH HAINES INDICES...WILL ONCE AGAIN EXASPERATE
ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD...SELY FLOW IN SRN CA/SWRN AZ WILL ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
PWAT FORECASTS HOLD TRUE...WET STORMS WOULD BE THE TENDENCY. FARTHER
N...MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...MAINLY OVER NRN CA/NWRN NV/SRN
OR. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED AND ATTM CONFIDENCE WOULD
ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE...EVEN ISOLD DEVELOPMENT WILL
ENHANCE FIRE THREAT.
SET UP WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED IN TOMORROWS FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND TO HOW
FAR N SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN ADVECT.
SHOULD CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...THERE MAY BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CA/NV ON THE FRINGE OF
NWD ADVECTING MOISTURE AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
..HURLBUT.. 09/15/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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