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FGUS72 KTAE 202213
ESFTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
210400-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
613 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY TO BRING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...VERY WET TROPICAL STORM FAY SHOWS RAINFALL POTENTIAL SIMILAR TO
DORA OF 1964...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING...

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY ARE PROJECTED TO TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND REACH THE BIG BEND BY
FRIDAY MORNING....CROSSING INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY SATURDAY.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.

CURRENT MODELS PROJECT THE POTENTIAL STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OR HIGHER OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN AREA INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND BY THIS SATURDAY. IN 1964 DORA...WHICH TOOK A
SIMILAR TRACK...GENERATED RECORD FLOODS ON THE SANTA FE RIVER AND
RECORD LEVELS ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.

THESE TYPES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE PARTICULARLY POSSIBLE IN THE BIG
BEND AND SUWANNEE AREA BECAUSE OF GEOGRAPHY. THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM THE ATLANTIC AS FAY PROGRESSES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL
REIGNITE OVER THE BIG BEND AND THE SUWANNEE AREA AS FAY TAPS INTO
THE VERY WARM GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER IF THE TRACK OF FAY IS FURTHER NORTH...THESE AMOUNTS COULD
BE HIGHER.

THOUGH THE AREA HAS BEEN IN A DROUGHT THE PAST TWO YEARS...THE
PROJECTED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
MODERATE FLOODING ON MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWENTY INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD GENERATE DAMAGING FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL RIVERINE FLOODING ON LARGER RIVERS WILL BE PROBABLE
NEXT WEEK AS WATER GATHERS INTO MAJOR RIVER DRAINAGES PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THOUGH POSSIBLY AFFECTING SOME
DRAINAGES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

$$