000
FXUS62 KMFL 171129
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME EAST AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINAL SITES BY 14Z. TODAY`S CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, WITH INITIAL SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING CLOSE TO TERMINAL LOCATIONS BEFORE SHIFTING TO INTERIOR
BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY STILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EASTERN AND WESTERN METRO AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
TO WARRANT AT LEAST TSRA IN TAFS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008/

DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 50S/60S...WITH
TALLAHASSEE DOWN TO AN ENVIOUS 62F...WHILE SULTRY 70S ARE FULLY
ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE VERY
LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SE STATES TO OUR NORTH TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF RIDGING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY UNTIL ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGS IN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES...TO WHERE THE LOCAL WEATHER
INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZE
FORCING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CONVERGENCE THU/FRI
FROM A STRONGER HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SE
BAHAMAS. SO WHILE TODAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE WEATHER OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WITH CONVECTION CONCENTRATED INTERIOR...THINKING
THAT THU/FRI WILL HAVE A MORE UNIFORM SHRA/TSRA DISTRIBUTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS MOVING NW ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD. GFS POPS
HAVE TRENDED UP TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. I TRENDED UPWARD...BUT NOT
QUITE AS HIGH. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...FOLLOWED CLOSELY
WITH GFS MOS POPS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
COULD NUDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.

MARINE...TRANQUIL WINDS/SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FETCH POINTED
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. SO WE COULD HAVE A SWELL IMPACTING OUR
ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
TYPICALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  88  75 / 30 20 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  87  76 / 20 20 50 40
MIAMI            90  77  88  76 / 20 20 50 40
NAPLES           91  74  90  72 / 20 30 40 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...59/RM