Tropical Depression DOUGLAS

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008
 
QUIKSCAT DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION SUGGEST THAT DOUGLAS WAS
PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL
INTENSITY COULD HAVE BEEN 35 KNOTS INSTEAD OF THE 30 KT ESTIMATED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND IT IS NOW ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHES OF STRONGER GUSTS ARE
PROBABLY OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER.  NEVERTHELESS... DOUGLAS IS
OVER COOL WATERS AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CLOUD SWIRL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO
THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 20.7N 110.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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