1) What construction statistics are available
from the Census Bureau?
2) What are economic indicators? Which indicators
do we produce in MCD? Are they leading or lagging economic indicators?
3) How are these economic indicators useful? How
do economists use them?
4) When do the monthly press releases/reports
come out? What about the quarterly data series?
5) Do you know how many houses there are in the
U.S./my state/my county?
6) Why doesn't the Census produce construction
statistics for Avoca, PA (or my home town)?
7) What percentage of the economy does construction
represent?
8) I want to get the "home price deflator" for
use in court/in insurance claims. Who do I call?
9) I saw a report on the news that there were
over a million houses started last month. Come on, a million!? What's
that about?
10) I keep hearing about the "revised" statistics.
Why do you revise the statistics which you've already published?
11) What other economic indicators are produced
at the Census Bureau?
12) Why do the new single family houses sold numbers
consistently turn out so much lower than the single family houses
started or completed?
1) What construction
statistics are available from the Census Bureau?
The Census Bureau collects, tabulates, and publishes monthly statistics on Housing Starts, Building
Permits, New One-Family Houses Sold, Housing Completions, Manufactured
Home Placements, and Dollar Value of Construction Put in Place.
We also produce quarterly
estimates of the Residential Construction in Selected Metropolitan
Areas, Price Index of New One-Family Houses Sold, and the Dollars
Spent on Residential Improvements and Repairs.
There are various annual
supplements to these monthly and quarterly data series which are
technically not separate data products. Generally they are more
localized (geographically) or more detailed (tighter distribution
ranges) versions of the same data provided in the monthly and quarterly
series.
Every five years (years
that end in "2" or "7") we conduct a Census of Construction Industries
(CCI) as part of the
Economic Censuses. The products of the CCI are a series of press
releases and (paper) publications which are eventually released
on CD ROM.
2) What are economic
indicators? Which indicators do we produce in MCD? Are they leading
or lagging economic indicators?
Economic indicators are
statistical figures which are used to track the growth and decline
of activity in specific segments of the economy over time.
MCD produces and releases
several economic indicators to the public, including Housing Starts,
Building Permits, New Single-Family Home Sales, Manufacturers' Shipments,
Inventories and Orders (M3), and the Value of Construction Put in
Place. These series can be used by themselves or in conjunction
with other indicators. For example, figures from the Value of Construction
Put in Place are used in the monthly computation of the U.S. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
Housing Starts, Building
Permits, New Single-Family Home Sales, and Manufacturers' Orders
are considered leading economic indicators because they tend to
increase or decrease before the economy/business cycle changes as
a whole. (Business cycle refers to the sequence of expansion and
recession periods of the economy over time.) For example, if building
permits increase and residential construction is growing, you can
expect an increase in demand for durable goods to follow, such as
major appliances that will be placed in new homes. The increase
in building permits foreshadows the increase in the demand for durable
goods.
The Conference Board
produces a monthly Composite Index of Leading Indicators which consists
of 11 components. Three of these components are based on statistics
produced in MCD. One is an index based on building permits data.
The other 2 are based on M3 data; specifically manufacturers' new
orders for consumer goods and materials, and the change in manufacturers'
unfilled orders for durable goods. More information on the Composite
Index of Leading Indicators and other indexes can be obtained by
contacting BEA at (202) 606-5366.
3) How are these economic
indicators useful? How do economists use them?
These indicators allow
us to track activity in different segments of the economy. This
information can be used to forecast future levels of activity.
Economists, fiscal and
monetary policy makers, and other analysts use economic indicators
to understand the overall behavior of the economy and the interaction
between the construction and manufacturing industries and various
other segments. Policy makers make decisions and create policies
based on what the indicators reveal about where these segments are
now and in what direction they may be heading. Construction companies
can then take advantage of these forecasts to plan out their employment
and supplies needs for the future.
4) When do the monthly
press releases/reports come out?
In general, the press
release schedule is as follows:
We issue the Housing Starts and Building Permits press release on
the 12th workday of the following month (January's data on the 12th
workday of February) at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
We issue the New One-Family Houses Sold press release on the 21st
workday of the following month at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time.
We issue the Value of Construction Put in Place press release on
the first workday of the second month after the survey month (January's
data on the first workday of March) at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
We issue the Housing Completions press release on the third workday
of the second month after the survey month at 10:00 a.m. Eastern
Time.
These are the general
rules. There are times when the Department of Commerce, of which
the Bureau is part, will decide to move a press release up or back
a day or two in order to avoid conflicts in scheduling with other
press releases.
It's important to remember
that "work days" refers to work days for federal offices in Washington,
DC (though the Census Bureau headquarters is physically located
in Suitland, Maryland about one mile from the District.) Your local
jurisdiction may celebrate George Washington's birthday as a legal
holiday, but the federal government recognizes Presidents' Day.
If they're not on the same day, your count of work days will be
different than ours.
Eastern time means EST
or EDT, whichever is in effect in Washington DC on the release date.
5) Do you know how many
houses there are in the U.S./my state/my county?
This is not actually
a "construction" statistic, so we don't process the surveys and
censuses that provide that data here in the Manufacturing and Construction
Division. There are other groups in the Bureau collecting, tabulating,
and publishing just such data on a regular basis.
Once every ten years
the Census Bureau conducts the Decennial Census of Population and
Housing, as directed in the Constitution of the United States.
We have information
on the numbers of households, families, people per household, etc
in the Population Division of the
Bureau. You should direct queries on that data to the experts at
(301) 457-2465. There are some data available for a variety of geographical
breakdowns, and there are some data which are regularly updated
between the decennial censuses.
For questions relating
to the numbers of existing housing units in the country during years
between the decennial censuses, you'll need to contact the American
Housing Survey (AHS) staff of the
Housing and Household Economic Statistics (HHES)
Division at (301) 457-3235. The AHS is conducted every two
years (odd numbered years) and provides data on the housing units
in the country. Regional, divisional, and some other geographic
breakouts are available for some of the statistics.
6) Why doesn't the Census
produce construction statistics for Avoca, PA (or my home town)?
We actually do produce
tabulations showing the number of Building
Permits issued in nearly every jurisdiction of the country that
issues permits (including Avoca). Most of our other survey data
are produced through sample surveys with data collection costs which
would make it prohibitive for us to try to cover the entire country
as well as we cover building permits. You can reach the Building
Permits branch at (301) 457-1321. Of particular interest to many
data users are the various diskettes (IBM compatible) of permit
data which they produce for sale.
The sample survey which
produces Housing Starts, Sales and Completions statistics allows
for the publication of data by Census Region. In addition quarterly
data for selected metropolitan areas is produced. For more information
on that series, call (301) 457-1321.
7) What percentage of
the economy does new construction represent?
MCD's figures on the
value of construction put in place are used in the formulation of
the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), produced by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis every quarter. For 1998, the value put in place was approximately
$665.4 billion or 7.8% of the $8,511.0 billion GDP figure.
8) I want to get the
"home price deflator" for use in court/in insurance claims. Who
do I call?
There are several standards
used for adjusting house prices when dealing with insurance companies,
tax courts, etc. Some have been codified in law by local jurisdictions.
Here in the Manufacturing and Construction Division we produce several
numbers which are frequently used for such purposes. There are different
technical merits of each which may or may not be considerations
in legal matters.
The quarterly Price
Index of New One-Family Houses Sold is a measure of what it would
cost to build a "typical" house in different time periods. The "typical"
house is currently defined as the average house sold in 1992. It's
a mathematical abstraction of the characteristics of new one-family
houses sold in 1992. This "house" is about 8.0 percent attached,
and about 4.9 percent detached in the Northeast region, 19.3 percent
detached in the Midwest region, 39.3 percent detached in the South
region, and 28.6 percent detached in the West region. That's because
about 8.0 percent of the new one-family houses sold in 1992 were
attached, 4.9 percent were detached houses in the Northeast, and
so on. Other characteristics of the sales mix in 1992 are weighted
within each of those 5 categories according to their share of the
1992 sales. The contribution that each characteristic made to the
total sales price is computed through a logarithmic regression where
the natural log of the sales price (including the value of the lot)
is the dependent variable, and the independent variables include
things like heating system categories, number of bathrooms, and
the biggie, the natural log of the square feet of floor area. A
description of the methodology used in the price index calculation
is available by calling (301) 457-1321.
There is also a houses
under construction "price deflator" which is produced each month
in MCD. This is used in estimating the value of construction put
in place each month in real terms for our Current Construction series
C30 reports entitled "Value of Construction Put-in-Place." The Construction
Expenditures Branch utilizes over a dozen different construction
price or cost indexes, though most of these are not for residential
construction. You can reach the statisticians in Construction Expenditures
Branch at (301) 457-1605.
There are several other
price deflators available from the statistical agencies of the U.S.
Government. The Bureau of Economic Analysis produces an implicit
price deflator for each category in the Gross Domestic Product.
For more information on these figures, contact the Bureau
of Economic Analysis.
The Bureau of Labor
Statistics produces the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which includes
a shelter cost component. Their most recent CPI press release is
available on the BLS
web site.
Outside the U.S. Federal
government agencies there are a number of construction indexes produced
by companies such as the American Appraisal Company. You can contact
American Appraisal at 25 East Michigan Street Milwaukee WI 53202
(414) 271-7246. Another set of indexes comes from the Engineering
News-Record. These are mainly cost indexes, and are available at
a city level for 20 cities in the U.S. For more information on their
data products, call (212) 512 2000.
9) I saw a report on
the news that there were over a million houses started last month.
Come on, a million!? What's that about?
The Census Bureau reports
on construction activity typically include a number which is a "seasonally
adjusted annual rate." In the case of housing starts, the
seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for a particular month is
often higher than one million houses.
There is an "actual"
number reported at the same time which doesn't get quite the in-depth
press coverage that the SAAR gets. For the housing starts report,
this is the estimate of the actual number of housing starts that
took place in that particular month.
The SAAR is calculated
by removing the normal seasonal variation from the monthly data,
as best we can, to produce a seasonally adjusted estimate for the
month. That estimate is multiplied by 12 to produce an annual rate.
The X-11 ARIMA process is used to detect and remove the seasonality
from the original data. If you'd like more information on X-11,
or its application to the Census Bureau's construction statistics
data series, look at the January issue of the Housing Starts report.
Publications are found from our home page under Publications (PDF).
You can find the Housing Starts reports
here. Appendix A in the January report will go into much greater
detail.
In general, economists
like to look at the seasonally adjusted numbers to watch for a trend
developing in the industry. If the numbers weren't adjusted for
seasonality, and you noticed that the housing starts were higher
in March than February, how would you know what to make of that?
For reasons having to do with when it's easier to build because
of the weather and when people are more likely to buy houses, you'd
expect March starts almost always to be higher than February. Seasonal
adjustment lets us compensate for the expected seasonal changes
and be able to better measure real trends.
10) I keep hearing about
the "revised" statistics. Why do you revise the statistics which
you've already published? Can't you publish the correct number the
first time?
Usually the preliminary or advance release, which gets the greatest
press coverage, is based on fewer reports than we have available
a month or two later. When the additional data are collected and
processed, we are able to base an estimate on the greater number
of responses .
11) What other economic
indicators are produced at the Census Bureau?
Additional economic indicators
produced in other areas at the Census Bureau include U.S.
International Trade, Labor
Force, Income,
Poverty, Government Budget and Debt,
Plant and Equipment Expenditures, and Retail
Sales.
12) Why do the new single
family houses sold numbers consistently turn out so much lower than
the single family houses started or completed?
There are some significant
differences in the units measured in those surveys. All
new single family residential units are included in the starts and
completions figures. This includes units being built for rent, those
built by a contractor on an owner's land, and those built by an
owner acting as his/her own contractor. There are also some units
being built for condominium or co-op development which meet the
definition of single family units.
New home sales data
include only the units which are built to be sold, where the purchase
of the lot is included in the transaction.
If there are other questions
that you've always wanted to ask about our data, but didn't know where
to get answers, let us know. We'll do our best to get the answer for
you, and incorporate your question(s) in the updates of this document.
U.S. Bureau of the Census
Manufacturing and Construction Division
Washington DC 20233-6900
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