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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster. Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Sep 22 - 26, 2008 (6-10 Day Outlook) Valid: Sep 24 - 30, 2008 (8-14 Day Outlook) Issued: Sep 16, 2008 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 22 - 26 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN DEPICTING A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS... A RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA... AND A RIDGE OVER ALASKA. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS WITH THE ECMWF MODEL HAVING THE LARGEST MAGNITUDE. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST... WHILE BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREVAIL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN ALASKA... WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED BY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE WESTERN TROUGHING SHOULD LEAD TO A WET AND COOL PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST... RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER... ONSHORE FLOW MAY MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK NORTH. SINCE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT... ABOVE NOMRAL PRECIPITAITON IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYLCONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS, AND THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 24 - 30 2008: SINCE YESTERDAY... MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND INDICATE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL BLEND 500-HPA CHART SHOWS PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ALASKA WITH A MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE WESTERN TROUGH ADVANCES EAST... A COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. RIDGING ALOFT SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA. HOWEVER... AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN WESTERN ALASKA AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE ALUETIANS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS, AND THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18 CLICK HERE FOR A GLOSSARY OF TERMS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520930 - 19800924 - 19930925 - 19670921 - 19550904
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800924 - 19520929 - 19930925 - 19670921 - 19740913
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 22 - 26, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 24 - 30, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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