SPC AC 052000
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT THU APR 05 2012
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES...
   
   ...SC/WESTERN NC...
   HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES /ESPECIALLY HAIL/ ACROSS
   THE REGION TO THE EAST OF A SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SURFACE LOW AND
   NEAR/SOUTH OF A SAGGING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
   FRONT...THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
   REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 461 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
   
   ...GA/FL...
   FEW CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BOUTS OF WIND DAMAGE REMAINING
   POSSIBLE WITH AN ADVANCING MCS. A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT COULD ALSO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS
   WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA...EITHER VIA THE
   ONGOING EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND/OR ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...TN VALLEY...
   NEAR THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING UPPER LOW...ISOLATED SEVERE
   HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF
   TORNADO MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN WITHIN A VORTICITY
   RICH ENVIRONMENT...BUT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/CLUSTERING SHOULD
   LARGELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. LASTLY...AIRMASS MAY RECOVER TO A
   DEGREE IN AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN MS/MUCH OF AL IN THE WAKE OF THE
   EARLY DAY MCS...BUT ANY HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/05/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT THU APR 05 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD
   THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION
   OF UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THE FORMER SYSTEM
   WILL BE ATTENDED BY A BROAD BELT OF 50-55 KT WINDS AT 500 MB WITH A
   LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING NEWD ACROSS MS/AL/GA
   TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM/JET STREAK WHICH WILL
   DIG SEWD THROUGH SRN PARTS OF AL/GA INTO FL TONIGHT.
   
   IN THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER MIDDLE TN AS OF 15Z WILL
   DEVELOP EWD TODAY BEFORE REFORMING OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
   TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD FROM THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN FL BY 06/12Z. 
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
   
   AS OF MID-MORNING...RADAR DATA SHOWED AN INTENSIFYING...BOWING MCS
   OVER W-CNTRL AL INTO SRN MS MOVING ESEWD AT 35 KT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
   LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM MENTIONED ABOVE...AND
   ROOTED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 60 KT OF
   DEEP WLY SHEAR /PER 12Z JAN SOUNDING/.  DOWNSTREAM CLOUDS AND MODEST
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST
   DESTABILIZATION TODAY...THOUGH AFTERNOON MLCAPE MAY STILL APPROACH
   1000-1500 J/KG.  BUT...GIVEN THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...AND AN
   EXPANDING/DEEPENING COLD POOL...EXPECT THE BOWING MCS TO CONTINUE
   ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/FL PNHDL TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ADDITIONAL STORMS NOW FORMING INVOF OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NERN
   AR/WRN TN WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND TN
   TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL.  WHILE VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS TO THE S...STEEPER MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL YIELD A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
   
   OTHER DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
   BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD THROUGH SC.  HERE...THE COMBINATION
   OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND
   30-40 KT OF DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL FOSTER STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   BY TONIGHT...THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   SEWD ACROSS SRN PARTS OF AL/GA INTO FL IN CONCERT WITH THE SECONDARY
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM.  THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN INTENSE NOCTURNAL
   MCS ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
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