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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Sep 15, 2008
Print Version | Day 1 Outlook | Day 2 Outlook | Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info
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Please refer to local WFO fire weather forecasts for specific fire
weather watches and red flag warnings.
Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)
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D3 | Wed, Sep 17, 2008 - Thu, Sep 18, 2008 |
D6 | Sat, Sep 20, 2008 - Sun, Sep 21, 2008 |
D4 | Thu, Sep 18, 2008 - Fri, Sep 19, 2008 |
D7 | Sun, Sep 21, 2008 - Mon, Sep 22, 2008 |
D5 | Fri, Sep 19, 2008 - Sat, Sep 20, 2008 |
D8 | Mon, Sep 22, 2008 - Tue, Sep 23, 2008 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 150826
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
VALID 171200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE OF CA...AND WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW. REGARDLESS...A
PATTERN CHANGE AND BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LEAD TO
AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD.
BY LATE D3 THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
PAC NW. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF THIS AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN...AND THERMAL INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO EXASPERATE NEW/ONGOING FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW.
FURTHERMORE...SWLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE...AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
D4 CERTAINTY DECREASES FURTHER...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE LOW A BIT
FARTHER S TOWARDS THE OR/NRN CA COAST...WHILE THE ECM PREFERS A MORE
NRN ROUTE. REGARDLESS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS INDICATIVE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FORECAST
COOLING ALOFT AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE AS WELL. PREFERRED AREA OF THESE STORMS WILL OF COURSE
DEPEND ON THE PATH OF THE LOW.
D5 ONWARD THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW...WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS WEAKENING IT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE OTHERS QUICKLY DRIVE IT EWD. A WEAKER
SOLUTION MAY END UP BEING PREFERRED...GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE.
..HURLBUT.. 09/15/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
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