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We all know it can’t go on. Even if we succeed in populating most of the car fleet in the UK with lower carbon models, just the sheer increase in both the number of miles projected to be driven and the number of cars on the road means that we will reach something approaching a national traffic jam before 2040.
The latest Department of Transport (DoT) predictions suggest that, by 2040, there will be a further 40% growth in car mileage, and a higher increase in cars on the road as vehicle life becomes elongated.
While there is evidence of declining traffic growth, leading some to suggest even a peak car hypothesis (that car miles have reached a historic high per person) most projections – even with a slower trajectory – remain of the car crash variety.
So as a matter of macro-policy, we need to consider doing something serious. What we need is a considerable expansion of public transport over the next period and a shift from car to bus, train, bike or even feet.
The big problem is how to do it. We know that car use resists most price shocks and that public transport has a long way to go before it can offer a compelling alternative to the journey by car. But, at the same time, we know that it has to.
There are some interesting proposals on the way, the most notable of which is the growth of car clubs. In these clubs users share vehicles, replacing the capital cost of purchasing a car with the rental cost of using one, supported by smartcard technology and instant billing.
Interestingly, this is primarily a London phenomenon: 80% of the 166,000 car club members across the country are in London. This is quite curious in a city which arguably has one of the best public transport systems in the world, and one which has already passed the 2040 congestion point at which it becomes a rational choice to use that public transport or pool resources in car sharing for the rest of the miles.
And it is this tipping point of choice that bedevils most of the rest of the UK. Most of us will choose to purchase rather than rent, leaving our choice unused at the side of the road for about 95% of the time. And this choice means we have a tipped choice about how we carry out our journeys.
The AA annual calculation of motoring costs puts the cost per mile of an average purchase price car at about 60p per mile. But 60% of this figure is made up by standing charges, most of which is the cost of financing and depreciating the original purchase. The opportunity cost, therefore, of getting in your car and driving it rather than getting on public transport looks more like 20p per mile (and, by the way, you have a free road to drive around on, maintained for your assistance at public expense).
Public transport cannot compete with that, even if it shares the free road space. And rail, where each mile of travel over a track is charged for separately, certainly cannot. At least car clubs start to break the link between that initial capital choice and our use decisions, but can only thrive, in circumstances where the alternative is not so atrophied with lack of support that it becomes the preserve of the valiant early adopter prepared to make choice sacrifices for their transport convictions.
As long as this false choice prevails, it is unlikely that the sort of decisive shift we need will ever come about. Also, it is unlikely political realities will either force people out of cars or inject the huge sums of money that will make our public transport systems across the country as viable an alternative that accretion over the years has done in London.
Unless – and here’s a point to ponder – regulation rather than prohibition took over. Rather like the simple change in building regulations that propelled the country from largely inefficient carbon-hungry boilers to efficient relatively low carbon boilers in just the space of a few years. What if the government simply regulated for cars to be sold and used just as they are at present (hopefully with an increasing presence of electric and hybrid vehicles) but outlawed individual ownership? People would then lease cars individually or as part of a club and the running costs of having a vehicle would be included in the lease arrangements. No one would be prohibited from using a car, but the playing field of choice would instantly be levelled. What then I wonder?
But the above is probably too fanciful to ever take off. I guess we’ll all keep on driving in our pre-purchased bubbles until we stop, gridlocked, at about 8.45am in February 2038.
Alan Whitehead is Labour MP for Southampton Test
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